New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable.
Transportation surveys are widely used to understand travel preferences and adoption barriers, yet most survey-based analyses remain descriptive or predictive and rarely provide sparse, policy-feasible intervention strategies. We study sparse counterfactual community intervention from survey responses, where the goal is to shift a target respondent group toward a desired reference group through controllable survey-variable adjustments. We formulate this task as a policy-feasible distributional alignment problem using a fixed-basis nonnegative latent representation that preserves pre/post comparability and provides a stable map from latent factors to original variables. To make latent movement actionable, target-relevant latent factors are identified through Shapley-guided attribution and transferred to controllable variables as intervention priorities. Feasible group-level adjustments are then learned by minimizing an entropy-regularized optimal-transport discrepancy between the post-intervention target distribution and the reference distribution, together with a weighted ℓ2,1 penalty that promotes shared policy-lever sparsity. Experiments on real-world transportation survey datasets show that the proposed framework produces compact and interpretable policy-feasible interventions with explicit adjustment magnitudes, improves population-level conversion, and preserves intervention sparsity. Code and datasets are publicly available at: https://github.com/pangjunbiao/latent-group-alignment.git
Fatima Ashraf, Muhammad Ayub Sabir, Junbiao Pang +2
Urban public transport disruptions require rapid response strategies, yet existing studies rarely provide a decision support framework to compare alternative disruption response solutions using a common set of dynamic, passenger, operator, and environment oriented indicators. This paper proposes a KPI-driven, time-indexed framework to assess the resilience of disruption response solutions in urban transit systems. The framework combines an optimization model with a behavioral evaluation in agent-based simulation. It also underlays the secondary service degradation induced on helper lines when in-service vehicles are withdrawn to support the disrupted corridor. Rather than treating resilience as a single score, it evaluates complementary dimensions including vulnerability, adaptability, robustness, resilience loss, responsiveness, cost-based performance, emissions, and equity. The framework is implemented for the RER B transit line in the Ile-de-France (Paris) network. Results show that the coordinated strategy provides the most balanced resilience profile, combining high service continuity with lower total disruption cost than single mode alternatives, while also improving equity and maintaining competitive environmental performance. Sensitivity analysis further identifies the disruption conditions under which coordinated multimodal response is most valuable.
City-scale autonomous vehicle fleet coordinators are typically optimized for aggregate travel time, yet fleet averages conceal how delay is distributed across trips and regions. We conduct a distributional audit on three real-city road-network and taxi-demand datasets from Manhattan, Chicago, and San Francisco. The audit reveals pervasive trip-length inequity whose direction depends on the city and coordinator. After accounting for trip length, spatial inequity becomes more pronounced as demand grows and is consistently stronger when trips are grouped by origin rather than destination. These findings motivate SPatially Aware RErouting (SPARE), a budgeted online coordination framework that assigns limited replanning capacity to delayed vehicles and redirects them using recently observed waiting pressure. SPARE provides a per-review decision guarantee and explicitly bounds online route updates. Experiments on all three datasets against six representative baselines show that SPARE delivers the strongest joint efficiency-fairness performance while retaining city-scale scalability. The results demonstrate that bounded congestion-responsive rerouting improves performance and equity without full-fleet replanning.