cs.SIFeb 17, 2026

The geometry of online conversations and the causal antecedents of conflictual discourse

Authors: Carlo Santagiustina, Caterina Cruciani

Organizations: Inria, France · Sciences Po médialab, France · Venice School of Management, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy

Abstract

This article investigates the causal antecedents of conflictual language and the geometry of interaction in online threaded conversations related to climate change. We employ three annotation dimensions, inferred through LLM prompting and averaging, to capture complementary aspects of discursive conflict (such as stance: agreement vs disagreement; tone: attacking vs respectful; and emotional versus factual framing) and use data from a threaded online forum to examine how these dimensions respond to temporal, conversational, and arborescent structural features of discussions. We show that, as suggested by the literature, longer delays between successive posts in a thread are associated with replies that are, on average, more respectful, whereas longer delays relative to the parent post are associated with slightly less disagreement but more emotional (less factual) language. Second, we characterize alignment with the local conversational environment and find strong convergence both toward the average stance, tone and emotional framing of older sibling posts replying to the same parent and toward those of the parent post itself, with parent post effects generally stronger than sibling effects. We further show that early branch-level responses condition these alignment dynamics, such that parent-child stance alignment is amplified or attenuated depending on whether a branch is initiated in agreement or disagreement with the discussion's root message. These influences are largely additive for civility-related dimensions (attacking vs respectful, disagree vs agree), whereas for emotional versus factual framing there is a significant interaction: alignment with the parent's emotionality is amplified when older siblings are similarly aligned.

Explore similar work

Oct 6, 2026

Measuring climate backlash in Twitter and Reddit archives: Lexical definitions, recorded responses and participant turnover

Social media archives are often used to study resistance to climate action, but words, response counters and observed participants do not measure the same social process. We examine four supplied Twitter and Reddit archives by processing all registered files without sampling and applying transparent, non-exclusive lexical rules. The study links frame co-occurrence to source-specific temporal and response models, then separates event-period changes among returning authors from participant turnover. Renewable-energy terms accompany cost-related language on Reddit, yet narrower backlash phrases sharply reduce cross-source contrasts and reverse the sign of the Paris Agreement contrast in submissions. Cross-discourse history does not improve eligible primary-context forecasts. Denial/hoax terms are associated with higher recorded Twitter likes, whereas Reddit response associations depend on frame, outcome and author specification. Around the 2019 global climate strike, returning-author expression and participant turnover both contribute to increased protest-language shares. An archive endpoint prevents the corresponding Climate Twitter migration inference. Most crossed-cluster estimates lack released intervals, and joint author/month response covariance estimates fail, restricting formal inference. These results show how operational definitions, platform-specific response fields and observation boundaries shape what can be claimed about climate backlash. The contribution is an archive-based account of these measurement consequences, rather than a measure of individual opposition, persuasion or advocacy-induced backlash.
Aug 18, 2026

A Decade of Climate Polarization on Brazilian YouTube using Language Models

Online platforms have become arenas for the public contestation of climate change, shaping how scientific knowledge, denial, and uncertainty are expressed and disputed. Yet longitudinal evidence remains limited for YouTube, especially for Portuguese-language discourse. Addressing this gap, we characterize how climate stances are expressed and contested over time in a large corpus of Portuguese-language YouTube comments retrieved through Brazil-oriented climate-related searches. To support this analysis in a noisy, imbalanced, and low-resource setting, we collect more than 240,000 comments posted between 2014 and 2024 and formulate stance detection as a three-way classification task (Believer, Denier, and Inconclusive). We operationalize stance attribution through a scalable self-training pipeline based on Llama 3.1, using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and hybrid instance selection to expand the training set with high-confidence pseudo-labeled examples while preserving class diversity. This approach improves coverage and class balance for minority and rhetorically complex classes, enabling large-scale stance attribution without extensive manual annotation. Our results show that polarisation is marked by interactional asymmetries: denialist comments are less prevalent, but they are associated with a comparatively higher share of cross-stance contestation, while pro-consensus discourse is more strongly reinforced within stance-homogeneous threads.
May 8, 2026

Change My View? The Dynamics of Persuasion and Polarization in Online Discourse

Philosophical accounts of persuasion often assume that shared evidence and rational argumentation should lead to a convergence of views between peers, yet everyday discourse often suggests otherwise. In this study, we use large language models to analyze a corpus of debates on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, where belief revision is publicly signaled. Large language models were asked, halfway through each discussion, to forecast whether such an acknowledgement would arise; their probabilistic estimates serve as a conversational baseline. Each reply was then coded, through a hybrid machine-assisted procedure, for ten familiar rhetorical strategies -- concession, empathy, logical challenge, credibility appeals, and so forth. Adding these strategic features markedly improves predictive power and yields a consistent pattern: moves that express concession or empathetic alignment substantially increase the prospect of belief change, whereas frontal refutation, credibility attacks, and topic deflection diminish it. The findings indicate that effective public reasoning depends as much on relational framing as on evidential content, and they invite a refinement of normative accounts of rational dialogue.