Construction of a classification model for dementia among Brazilian adults aged 50 and over

F. S. Menezes; M. C. F. G. Barretto; E. Q. C. Garcia; T. A. E. Ferreira; J. G. Alvez

cs.LGFeb 18, 2026

Construction of a classification model for dementia among Brazilian adults aged 50 and over

Authors: F. S. Menezes, M. C. F. G. Barretto, E. Q. C. Garcia, T. A. E. Ferreira, J. G. Alvez

Organizations: Instituto de Medicina Integral Professor Fernando Figueira (IMIP) · Future Tech · Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)

Abstract

To build a dementia classification model for middle-aged and elderly Brazilians, implemented in Python, combining variable selection and multivariable analysis, using low-cost variables with modification potential. Observational study with a predictive modeling approach using a cross-sectional design, aimed at estimating the chances of developing dementia, using data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil), involving 9,412 participants. Dementia was determined based on neuropsychological assessment and informant-based cognitive function. Analyses were performed using Random Forest (RF) and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the risk of dementia in the middle-aged and elderly populations of Brazil. The prevalence of dementia was 9.6%. The highest odds of dementia were observed in illiterate individuals (Odds Ratio (OR) = 7.42), individuals aged 90 years or older (OR = 11.00), low weight (OR = 2.11), low handgrip strength (OR = 2.50), self-reported black skin color (OR = 1.47), physical inactivity (OR = 1.61), self-reported hearing loss (OR = 1.65), and presence of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.72). Higher education (OR=0.44), greater life satisfaction (OR=0.72), and being employed (OR=0.78) were protective factors. The RF model outperformed logistic regression, achieving an area under the ROC curve of 0.776, with a sensitivity of 0.708, a specificity of 0.702, an F1-score of 0.311, a G-means of 0.705, and an accuracy of 0.703. Conclusion: The findings reinforce the multidimensional nature of dementia and the importance of accessible factors for identifying vulnerable individuals. Strengthening public policies focused on promoting brain health can contribute significantly to the efficient allocation of resources in primary care and dementia prevention in Brazil

Clinical Risk Prediction

Clinical risk prediction estimates patients’ future health outcomes from medical records, physiological signals, imaging, and other health data.

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ITU-DESC: a missingness-aware machine-learning dementia risk score in the UK Biobank cohort

Abdullah Kavaklı, Faik Boray Tek

Department of Artificial Intelligence and Data Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.

Clinical Risk Prediction

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Background: Existing dementia risk scores rely on fixed, pre-selected features and linear models, or ignore bias from informative missingness in cohort data. Here we introduce the Istanbul Technical University Dementia Risk Score (ITU-DESC), an explainable machine-learning score for incident all-cause dementia that combines broad feature selection across roughly 8,000 candidate features with explicit control of missingness bias. Results: We studied approximately 500,000 UK Biobank participants with a median follow-up of 16.6 years. We withheld missingness patterns from the model using unconditional random hot-deck imputation. We stabilized feature selection by repeating BorutaSHAP-based feature selection with ten random-imputation seeds and selecting predictors chosen in at least eight of the ten seeds, which yielded 38 predictors. We trained a CatBoost gradient-boosted decision-tree model and evaluated it on a holdout test set of 50,041 participants. For all-cause incident dementia, ITU-DESC achieved an average precision of 0.138 (95% confidence interval 0.123-0.156) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) of 0.853 (0.844-0.863), significantly outperforming other risk scores, including the strongest comparator, the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Prediction model (0.118 and 0.841). We identified dementia risk predictors absent from established scores, including leukocyte telomere length and liver enzymes. Conclusions: ITU-DESC is the first dementia risk score to combine broad feature selection with explicit control of missingness bias.

Abstract

Clinical Risk Prediction

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