Continuous Telemonitoring of Heart Failure using Personalised Speech Dynamics

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate which voice features can predict health deterioration in patients with chronic HF. Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic condition with progressive deterioration and acute decompensations, often requiring hospitalization and imposing substantial healthcare and economic burdens. Current standard-of-care (SoC) home monitoring, such as weight tracking, lacks predictive accuracy and requires high patient engagement. Voice is a promising non-invasive biomarker, though prior studies have mainly focused on acute HF stages. Methods: In a 2-month longitudinal study, 32 patients with HF collected daily voice recordings and SoC measures of weight and blood pressure at home, with biweekly questionnaires for health status. Acoustic analysis generated detailed vowel and speech features. Time-series features were extracted from aggregated lookback windows (e.g., 7 days) to predict next-day health status. Explainable machine learning with nested cross-validation identified top vocal biomarkers, and a case study illustrated model application. Results: A total of 21,863 recordings were analyzed. Acoustic vowel features showed strong correlations with health status. Time-series voice features within the lookback window outperformed corresponding standard care measures, achieving peak sensitivity and specificity of 0.826 and 0.782 versus 0.783 and 0.567 for SoC metrics. Key prognostic voice features identifying deterioration included delayed energy shift, low energy variability, and higher shimmer variability in vowels, along with reduced speaking and articulation rate, lower phonation ratio, decreased voice quality, and increased formant variability in speech. Conclusion: Voice-based monitoring offers a non-invasive approach to detect early health changes in chronic HF, supporting proactive and personalized care.

Objective: Heart failure (HF) presents a healthcare challenge due to its high comorbidity burden, aging patient population and frequent hospitalizations. Remote monitoring offers a promising approach to managing HF patients by early detection of health deterioration. Developing autonomous systems to detect signs of worsening in telemonitoring data is of interest to reduce the workload of healthcare personnel. Methods: We propose the TRACER model, a Transformer with Contrastive Event Representation, designed to predict timelines leading to rare hospitalization events in low-resolution and irregularly sampled telemonitoring data. TRACER incorporates time-aware embeddings for each biomarker, contrastive pre-training to enhance anomaly detection via representation learning, and independent binary classifiers for detection. We used measurement data containing remotely recorded biomarker sequences from 276 HF patients segmented into overlapping windows based on temporal rules, and labeled the windows based on the occurrence of HF relevant hospitalizations at the latter edge of the window. Results: TRACER was able to correctly predict 66.7% timelines leading up to HF hospitalizations in the highly imbalanced real-world dataset with an overestimation of 7.9%. Reformulating the training of TRACER as an event detection problem improved the predictive performance compared with training directly on forecasting windows, enabling more effective use of the limited hospitalization events. Conclusion: TRACER demonstrated superior performance in detecting signs of worsening status in real-world telemonitoring data compared to the other tested models. Significance: TRACER shows promise in identifying signs of clinical deterioration that allow for alerts to be generated to provide counteractive treatment in patients with HF.

Accurate short-term mortality prediction in heart failure (HF) remains challenging, particularly when relying on structured electronic health record (EHR) data alone. We evaluate transformer-based models on a French HF cohort, comparing text-only, structured-only, multimodal, and LLM-based approaches. Our results show that enriching clinical text with entity-level representations improves prediction over CLS embeddings alone, and that supervised multimodal fusion of text and structured variables achieves the best overall performance. In contrast, large language models perform inconsistently across modalities and decoding strategies, with text-only prompts outperforming structured or multimodal inputs. These findings highlight that entity-aware multimodal transformers offer the most reliable solution for short-term HF outcome prediction, while current LLM prompting remains limited for clinical decision support.