Mortality Prediction

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Overview

Mortality prediction estimates who is at risk of death and, in survival analysis, when an event may occur despite incomplete follow-up or censoring. Researchers use statistical survival models such as Cox regression alongside recurrent and transformer networks, graph models, and multimodal methods that combine electronic health records with images, notes, or bedside signals. Studies span ICU outcomes commonly evaluated on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, as well as population risks such as heat-related and overdose mortality. Models can improve discrimination, but reliable calibration, fairness across patient groups, missing data, and performance across hospitals remain important challenges.

Latest papers

CardsList

30 papers3 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Evidence-Anchored Overdose Death Prediction from Death Investigation Reports

    Oct 14, 2026Raavi Gupta, Ziqing Yang, Karli R. Hochstatter +8HealthcareExplainable Artificial Intelligence

    Columbia University, USA · Friends Research Institute, USA · The New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner, USA +2

  2. Protocol Choices Matter More Than the Aggregation Algorithm: Federated Learning for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Care-Unit and Multi-Hospital Federations

    Oct 12, 2026Rodrigo Tertulino, Ricardo Almeida, Laércio AlencarFederated LearningFederated Learning Aggregation

    Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN), Brazil

  3. Beyond Demographic Balance: Multi-Metric and Intersectional Evaluation of Fairness in MIMIC-IV Mortality Prediction

    Oct 1, 2026Abdullah Al Noman, Fahmid Al Rifat, Tahrima Hashem +3Algorithmic FairnessIntersectional Fairness

    Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Virginia, USA · University of Texas at Arlington Arlington, Texas, USA · University of Melbourne Melbourne, Victoria, Australia +3

  4. Missingness-Aware Conformal Prediction Under Cross-Hospital Distribution Shift

    Sep 25, 2026Liang You, Dongwen Ou, Hengyu Shi +1Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    University of Pittsburgh · Duke University · Xiamen University

  5. GLR-MM: Graph-Based Global-Local Reconstruction for Robust Multimodal Chest X-ray and EHR Representation Learning under Missing Modalities

    Sep 20, 2026Surbhi Sharma, Nikhil Manali, Devesh MaheshwariMissing-Modality LearningGraph Neural Networks

    Houston Methodist, Houston, TX, USA · University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA · Walmart, USA

  6. Rolling Day-Wise Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Patients With AKI on CRRT Utilizing Machine Pressure Waveforms

    Sep 11, 2026Shehan Irteza Pranto, Joanna Yang, Joshua Lambert +6Time Series ModelingMortality Prediction

    Department of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, University of Alabama at Birmingham, AL, USA · Windreich Department of Artificial Intelligence and Human Health at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA · College of Nursing, University of Cincinnati, OH, USA +4

  7. NeoTriFuse: Reliability-Aware Multimodal Fusion under Missingness Heterogeneity for Neonatal Mortality Risk Prediction

    Aug 26, 2026Jiyuan Tian, Qincheng Shen, Ye Lin +2Reliability-Aware Multimodal FusionMortality Prediction

    Discipline of Business Analytics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia · Molly Wardaguga Institute for First Nations Birth Rights, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia

  8. QuanTiMedAI: Quantum-Enhanced Time-Series Model guided by Agentic AI for Cardiac Arrest Mortality Prediction

    Aug 6, 2026Mutasim Fuad Sarker, Adiba Rahman Namira, Wafa Binte Alam +3Hybrid Quantum-Classical MLLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Dept. of ECE North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Dept. of ECE Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada

  9. CT-HEG: A Bidirectional, Timestamp-Attributed Event Graph for ICU In-Hospital Mortality Prediction - An Architectural Ablation Study

    Aug 1, 2026Mohammad Nasir Uddin, Rahnuma Tabassum Orpita, Asaduzzaman Anik +4Heterogeneous GNNsLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    College of Business, DBA-BIDA, Westcliff University, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Dept. of CSE, Northern University Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh · MBA, Business Administration & Management, Stanton University, Anaheim, CA, USA +2

  10. Demographically-Informed Heat-Mortality Risk Curves via Risk Graph Neural Networks

    Jul 23, 2026Alex O. Davies, Eunice Lo, Rui ZhuGraph Neural NetworksProbabilistic Forecasting

    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

  11. Predicting Lethal Outcome (Cause) And Understanding Key Biomarkers Linked With Acute Myocardial Infarction Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies

    Jul 1, 2026Sagnik GhoshMortality Prediction

  12. Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting

    Jun 4, 2026Thi Kim Ngan NguyenLLM Tool UseMortality Prediction

    Curtin University

  13. SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

    Jun 3, 2026Samuel Böhm, Lennart Purucker, Frank Hutter +1Tabular Foundation ModelsSurvival Analysis

    Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany · Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center – University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany +7

  14. D2MDT: Department-aware Multidisciplinary Team Consultation with Deliberation for Efficient Clinical Prediction

    Jun 2, 2026Yongqi Liang, Qidong Liu, Chunze Yang +4Clinical Outcome PredictionMulti-Agent Collaboration

    Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China

  15. Developing a novel Comorbidities Index for predicting 10-year mortality in Prostate Cancer patients: A computational data-driven approach

    May 29, 2026Davide Farinati, Francesco Barletta, Paolo Zaurito +6Cancer Survival PredictionMetaheuristic Optimization

    Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy Comprehensive Cancer Center/Unit of Urology; URI; IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy · School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK · Department of Urology, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK

  16. Towards end-to-end LLM-based censoring-aware survival analysis

    May 25, 2026Yishu Wei, Hexin Dong, Yi Lin +3Survival AnalysisMortality Prediction

    Department of Population Health Science, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US · Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US

  17. SurvivalPFN: Amortizing Survival Prediction via In-Context Bayesian Inference

    May 15, 2026Shi-ang Qi, Vahid Balazadeh, Michael Cooper +2Amortized InferenceSurvival Analysis

    Vector Institute · University of Toronto · University of Alberta +1

  18. Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management

    May 7, 2026Davide RindoriLong-Term Time Series ForecastingAI Risk Management

    SAV Actuarial Candidate, ETH Zürich · PhD in Physics, University of Florence (2021)

  19. Social Determinants of Health and Fentanyl Overdose Mortality Across US Counties: An XGBoost and SHAP Analysis Identifying Silent Risk Counties and Treatment Deserts

    May 6, 2026Kabi Raj Tiruwa, Abhisan Ghimire, Anuj Kumar ShahMortality Prediction

    Clark University · Clark University, 910 Main St, Worcester, 01610, MA, USA. · Yeshiva University +1

  20. Enhance the after-discharge mortality rate prediction via learning from the medical notes

    May 5, 2026Zijiang YangHealthcareClinical Outcome Prediction

    University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712, USA

  21. NEURON: A Neuro-symbolic System for Grounded Clinical Explainability

    May 2, 2026Anuradha Chandrasekaran, Dimitrios Zikos, Mutlu Mete +3Explainable Artificial IntelligenceClinical Outcome Prediction

    University of North Texas, USA and Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · University of North Texas, USA

  22. Simulating clinical interventions with a generative multimodal model of human physiology

    Apr 30, 2026Guy Lutsker, Gal Sapir, Jordi Merino +7Multivariate Time Series ForecastingHealthcare

    Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. · Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. · NVIDIA, Tel Aviv, Israel. +5

  23. Medical Image Understanding Improves Survival Prediction via Visual Instruction Tuning

    Apr 20, 2026Xixi Liu, Jorge Lazo, Andreas Hallqvist +8Clinical Outcome PredictionMedical VLMs

    Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

  24. Is Clinical Text Enough? A Multimodal Study on Mortality Prediction in Heart Failure Patients

    Apr 2, 2026Oumaima El Khettari, Virgile Barthet, Guillaume Hocquet +3Mortality PredictionMultimodal Fusion

    Nantes Univ., École Centrale Nantes, CNRS, LS2N, UMR 6004, 44000 Nantes, France · Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, LISN, Orsay, France · Hôpital Saint Joseph, DIMID, et Service de Cardiologie, Paris, France

  25. Association of Progressive PPFE and Mortality in Lung Cancer Screening Cohorts

    Mar 10, 2026Shahab Aslani, Mehran Azimbagirad, Daryl Cheng +16Mortality Prediction

    Satsuma Lab, Hawkes Institute, University College London, London, UK · Department of Respiratory Medicine, University College London, London, UK · Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK +7

  26. Data-Driven Priors for Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction of Clinical Deterioration using Multimodal Data

    Mar 9, 2026L. Julián Lechuga López, Tim G. J. Rudner, Farah E. ShamoutBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Tandon School of Engineering, New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi · University of Toronto

  27. TA-RNN-Medical-Hybrid: A Time-Aware and Interpretable Framework for Mortality Risk Prediction

    Mar 9, 2026Zahra Jafari, Azadeh Zamanifar, Amirfarhad FarhadiMortality PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Computer Engineering, SRC.,Islamic Azad university, Tehran, Iran · School of Computer Engineering, Iran university of Science and technology, Tehran, Iran

  28. Reliable XAI Explanations in Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction for Chagas Cardiomyopathy

    Feb 25, 2026Vinícius P. Chagas, Luiz H. T. Viana, Mac M. da S. Carlos +4Clinical Risk PredictionMortality Prediction

    Federal Institute of Education and Technology of Ceara, Maracanau, Ceara, Brazil · Universidade Feferal do Ceará (UFC), CE · Edson Saad Heart Institute – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  29. Improving Fairness of Large Language Model-Based ICU Mortality Prediction via Case-Based Prompting

    Dec 17, 2025Gangxiong Zhang, Yongchao Long, Yuxi Zhou +2Algorithmic FairnessFew-Shot Prompting

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin, China · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China · DCST, BNRist, RIIT, Institute of Internet Industry, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China +1

  30. Contrastive Deep Learning Reveals Age Biomarkers in Histopathological Skin Biopsies

    Nov 25, 2024Kaustubh Chakradeo, Pernille Nielsen, Lise Mette Rahbek Gjerdrum +5Computational PathologyMortality Prediction

    University of Copenhagen, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark · University of Copenhagen, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Copenhagen, 1353, Denmark · Technical University of Denmark, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Denmark +7