Clinical Outcome Prediction

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Overview

Clinical outcome prediction estimates what may happen to a patient, from short-term deterioration and readmission to disease progression, treatment response, and survival. Common approaches include tree-based models and survival analysis, temporal transformers and recurrent networks, multimodal fusion of EHRs with imaging or omics, and newer foundation models, federated learning, and causal or digital-twin methods. Evaluation spans settings such as ICU records from MIMIC and eICU, longitudinal Alzheimer’s cohorts such as ADNI, and multi-site cancer and imaging benchmarks, with attention to external validation, calibration, and subgroup performance. A central tension is that complex models can improve prediction, yet missing data, site shifts, label leakage, and weak uncertainty or fairness assessment often limit whether results generalize and support clinical decisions.

Latest papers

CardsList

265 papers24 papers in the last four weeks, down 8% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. When uncertainty quantification fails: structural vulnerabilities and corrections for selective prediction under clinical class imbalance

    Oct 27, 2026Walter Endrizzi, Flavio Ragni, Raffaele Marchesi +4Selective PredictionClass-Imbalanced Learning

    Data Science for Health, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy. · Department of Cellular, Computational and Integrative Biology, University of Trento, Trento, Italy. · Department of Mathematics, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy. +2

  2. MedJev: Evaluating Zero-Shot System-One Decision Making in Medicine

    Oct 26, 2026Simon A. Lee, Jiahang Sha, Moonseong Jeong +2Clinical Language Model EvaluationZero-Shot Learning

    UCLA Computational Medicine · UCLA Neurosurgery

  3. DIGOM: Disentangled Interaction Graphs for Outcome prediction in Multimodal healthcare

    Oct 23, 2026Hakima Laribi, Olivier Lefebvre, Dan Poenaru +1Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Graph Learning

    Department of Computer Science, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 Boulevard de l’Université, Sherbrooke, Québec, J1K 2R1, Canada · Department of Pediatric Surgery, Montreal Children’s Hospital, 1001 Boulevard Décarie, Montreal, Québec, H4A 3J1, Canada · Centre for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, 5252 Boulevard de Maisonneuve Ouest, Montreal, Québec, H4A 3S5, Canada +1

  4. LeakBench: Auditing Reward Hacking through Prediction-Time Leakage in Clinical Modeling Agents

    Oct 19, 2026Xiaoyuan Bao, Jingsi Jiang, Jiao Shan +4Data LeakageAI Agent Auditing

    Medical Informatics Center, Institute of Advanced Clinical Medicine, Peking University, Beijing, China · Department of Ultrasound, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China · Department of Hospital-Acquired Infection Control, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Beijing, China +4

  5. TRACE: Tracking Multimodal Clinical Trajectories for Inpatient Risk Prediction

    Oct 19, 2026Minjun Kim, Jong Hak MoonClinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Yeji X

  6. CoRe-WM: Conditioned Response-State World Modeling for Longitudinal Treatment-Response Prediction in Breast DCE-MRI

    Oct 18, 2026Lin Zhao, Bowen Chen, Qiaohui Gao +4Cancer Drug Response PredictionClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Biomedical Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA. · College of Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA. · Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA. +2

  7. Incentivizing Tool-Use Reinforcement Learning for Post-Arrival Emergency Care Prediction

    Oct 15, 2026Pengfei Hu, Chenwei Wu, Qiao Jin +4Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Stevens Institute of Technology · University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · National Institutes of Health +1

  8. Predicting Live Birth After Fresh Embryo Transfer in IVF/ICSI: Differential ICM/Trophectoderm Morphology Encoding and a Hybrid Attention--Logistic Regression Ensemble

    Oct 15, 2026Abdul Raheem Shahzad, Jinxin Chen, Ming Zhang +1Clinical Outcome PredictionTabular Prediction

    School of Computer Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China · Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China · Reproductive Medical Center, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, P.R. China, and also with the Clinical Medicine Research Center of Prenatal Diagnosis and Birth Health in Hubei Province, Wuhan, Hubei, P.R. China

  9. Graph-Enhanced Disease Trajectory Discovery and Temporal Endpoint Forecasting from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    Oct 14, 2026Jin-Jia Zheng, Vincent S. TsengDisease Progression ModelingLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Computer Science, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taiwan

  10. Beyond the Encoder: Object-Centric Representations Emerging from Segmentation Foundation Models

    Oct 13, 2026Michalis Pistos, Bartłomiej W. PapieżCancer Subtype ClassificationObject-Centric Representation Learning

    Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, United Kingdom

  11. Protocol Choices Matter More Than the Aggregation Algorithm: Federated Learning for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Care-Unit and Multi-Hospital Federations

    Oct 12, 2026Rodrigo Tertulino, Ricardo Almeida, Laércio AlencarFederated LearningFederated Learning Aggregation

    Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN), Brazil

  12. Sequence Composition in EHR Foundation Model Pretraining

    Oct 12, 2026Joshua Placidi, Inigo Stibbe, Alfred J. Balston +2EHR Foundation ModelsElectronic Health Records

    Department of Computing, Imperial College London

  13. Deep Neural Mixed Models for Nonlinear Longitudinal Prediction with Subject-Specific Heterogeneity

    Oct 11, 2026Mahmud Hasan, Niloofar Ramezani, Hrishikesh ChakrabortyMixed-Effects ModelsClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Penn State Altoona, PA, USA · Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, VA, USA · Department of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Duke University, NC, USA

  14. Word-Aligned Prosody Reflects Speaker Differences More Than Depression or PTSD Severity

    Oct 10, 2026Hsiang-Chen Yeh, Aurosweta Mahapatra, Shreeram Suresh Chandra +2Speech ProsodyClinical Speech Processing

    Clinical Mental Health Counseling, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA · Center for Language and Speech Processing (CLSP), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA · College of Connected Computing, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA

  15. Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Language Model with Heterogeneous Evidence Integration for Clinical Prognosis

    Oct 9, 2026Hamza Shafiq, Jialu Tang, Ting Dang +2Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Fusion

    Eindhoven University of Technology · University of Melbourne

  16. OA-MAP: Evidence-Grounded Multi-Agent Multimodal Framework for Interpretable Knee Osteoarthritis Progression

    Oct 8, 2026Sixu Chen, Mingrui Yang, Qiang Guan +1Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Agents

    Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA

  17. MC-TRCM: Observation-Aware Recursive Fusion for Incomplete Mobile and Wearable Mental-Health Feature Views

    Oct 8, 2026Wentao Wang, Lifeng Han, Zining Ren +2Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Prediction

    Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China · Southwest University, Chongqing, China

  18. GeneICL: A Tabular Foundation Model for Bulk Transcriptomics

    Oct 6, 2026Michael Bohl, Alexander Theus, David Wissel +1Tabular Foundation ModelsClinical Outcome Prediction

    ETH Zurich · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems · Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics +1

  19. No Transformer Beats Six Covariates: Long-Horizon Prediction of Depressive Symptoms from Childhood Essays

    Oct 6, 2026Daniel Kua, Emrul Hasan, John-Jose Nunez +1TransformerDepression Detection

    Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada · Vector Institute, Toronto, Canada · Department of Psychiatry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada +1

  20. Transcriptome-informed multi-modal AI for predicting neoadjuvant therapy response from breast cancer biopsies

    Oct 2, 2026Jungkyu Park, Dhruva Biswas, Joseph Cappadona +22Clinical Outcome PredictionComputational Pathology

    Ataraxis AI, New York, NY, USA. · Breast Oncology Program, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA. · Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. +13

  21. RASPER: Reward-Aligned Summarization of Clinical Notes for EHR Outcome Prediction

    Oct 2, 2026Arya Hadizadeh Moghaddam, Mohsen Nayebi Kerdabadi, Chen Chen +2Medication RecommendationText Summarization

    Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Kansas, USA

  22. Understanding Trajectory Heterogeneity in Federated World Model Learning

    Oct 2, 2026Yipan Wei, Zhaokun Yan, Ziming Hong +2World Model LearningHeterogeneous Federated Learning

    Wuhan University · China Academy of Information and Communications Technology · The University of Sydney +2

  23. GLoC-EHR: Evidence-Cited Clinical Reasoning over Global Context and Local EHR Events

    Oct 1, 2026Chaiho Shin, Kwangsoo KimEvidence-Grounded ReasoningClinical Outcome Prediction

    Interdisciplinary Program of Medical Informatics, Seoul National University College of Medicine · Department of Transdisciplinary Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital · Center for Data Science, Healthcare AI Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital +1

  24. Fixing a Model That Learned Worse Cancer Means Lower Risk: Monotonic Constraints in Bladder Cancer Recurrence Prediction

    Oct 1, 2026Saram Abbas, David Thomas, Naeem Soomro +3Counterfactual EvaluationGradient-Boosted Decision Trees

    School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK · Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK · Department of Urology, Freeman Hospital, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK +1

  25. Fusion techniques of time frequency-based images to predict the outcome of rTMS depression therapy

    Sep 30, 2026Wael Korani, Md Fahimul Kabir Chowdhury, Mohammed Aledhari +2ElectroencephalographyClinical Outcome Prediction

  26. From Image Interpretation to Clinical Reasoning: Upstream Physician-Context-Aware Multimodal Learning with Causal Reinforcement Learning

    Sep 30, 2026Jialu Pi, Yanan Ma, Weijie Chen +8Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Reasoning

    Dept. of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ, USA · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA · Dept. of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, USA +2

  27. MTLiquid: Enabling Efficient Multi-Task Learning using Liquid Neural Networks for Lightweight Healthcare Monitoring Systems

    Sep 27, 2026Rachmad Vidya Wicaksana Putra, Fahad Abdul Rauf, Muhammad ShafiqueSepsis PredictionMulti-Task Learning

    eBRAIN Lab, New York University (NYU) Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

  28. Deep learning of longitudinal visual fields predicts glaucoma progression rate and identifies fast progressors

    Sep 24, 2026Taiabur Rahman, Siddiqur Rahman, Muhammad Moniruzzaman +7Clinical Outcome PredictionAleatoric Uncertainty

    AI-MIQA, www.ai-miqa.eu. · Vision Eye Institute and Hospital, Dhaka, 1205, Bangladesh. · China West Normal University, Nanchong, Sichuan, China.

  29. Predicting the Progression of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

    Sep 23, 2026Owen Pullen, Amir Jamaludin, Andrew ZissermanClinical Outcome Prediction

    Visual Geometry Group, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

  30. Cross-Scale Transfer Learning for Depression Severity Prediction: From PHQ-8 to HAMD-17 Across Languages and Clinical Paradigms

    Sep 23, 2026Wenjie Feng, Sahba Zojaji, Satoshi NakamuraClinical Outcome PredictionDepression Severity Estimation

    School of Artificial Intelligence, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China · School of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China · Shenzhen Loop Area Institute, Shenzhen, China