Foundation World Models for Agents that Learn, Verify, and Adapt Reliably Beyond Static Environments

Learned world models are becoming essential to general-purpose agents: by predicting action consequences, they support planning and decision-making while reducing reliance on costly trial and error. This reliance creates a fundamental ambiguity: when a world-model-guided decision fails, the trajectory alone may not reveal whether the agent's decision rule or the world model caused the loss. We formalize this failure-attribution problem as a counterfactual decomposition of return loss and prove that its components are not identifiable from passive interaction, even for finite-horizon planners. This obstruction motivates Dual-Frontier, a learning principle that admits a world-model-guided decision only when its predicted advantage exceeds a certified bound on decision-relevant world-model error; otherwise, evidence is allocated to world-model verification. Action-conditioned value bounds and a closed-loop extension guarantee non-decreasing return for admitted decisions. Calibrated gates and simultaneous confidence sequences support adaptive evidence reuse, with sufficient and necessary verification bounds. Controlled learned-model experiments validate the predicted failure modes and certification behavior, while cross-backbone tool-use benchmarks instantiate the same verify-then-promote rule in realistic agent world-model pipelines, consistently improving decision quality and reliability.

General-purpose world models promise scalable policy evaluation, optimization, and planning, yet achieving the required level of robustness remains challenging. Unlike policy learning which primarily focuses on optimal actions, a world model needs to be reliable over a vast space of suboptimal actions, which are often underrepresented in action-labeled robot interactions. To address this challenge, we propose World Action Verifier (WAV), a framework that enables world models to identify their own prediction errors and self-improve. The key idea is to decompose action-conditioned state prediction into two independently verifiable factors: state plausibility and action reachability. We show that verifying these factors is significantly more tractable than direct forward prediction due to two underlying asymmetries: the broader availability of action-free data and the lower dimensionality of action-relevant features. Leveraging these asymmetries, we augment a world model with (i) a diverse subgoal generator obtained from video corpora and (ii) a sparse inverse model that infers actions from a subset of state features. By enforcing cycle consistency among proposed subgoals, inferred actions, and forward rollouts, WAV provides an effective verification mechanism in under-explored regimes, where existing methods often fail. Across nine tasks spanning MiniGrid, RoboMimic, and ManiSkill, our method achieves 2x higher sample efficiency while improving downstream policy performance by over 22%.

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate. Code and resources are available at: https://github.com/matrix-agent/awesome-agentic-world-modeling.