How Well Do Multimodal Models Reason on ECG Signals?

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) show promising performance in automated electrocardiogram interpretation, it remains unclear whether they genuinely perform actual step-by-step reasoning or just rely on superficial visual cues. To investigate this, we introduce ECG-Reasoning-Benchmark, a novel multi-turn evaluation framework comprising over 6,400 samples to systematically assess step-by-step reasoning across 17 core ECG diagnoses. Our comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals a critical failure in executing multi-step logical deduction. Although models possess the medical knowledge to retrieve clinical criteria for a diagnosis, they exhibit near-zero success rates (6% Completion) in maintaining a complete reasoning chain, primarily failing to ground the corresponding ECG findings to the actual visual evidence in the ECG signal. These results demonstrate that current MLLMs bypass actual visual interpretation, exposing a critical flaw in existing training paradigms and underscoring the necessity for robust, reasoning-centric medical AI. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Jwoo5/ecg-reasoning-benchmark.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis in clinical practice relies on structured reasoning over multiple hierarchical aspects, including cardiac rhythm, conduction properties, waveform morphology, and overall diagnostic impression. However, most existing approaches predict labels directly from ECG signals without explicit clinical reasoning, resulting in opaque decisions that lack clinical alignment. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioThink, a physician-inspired multimodal large language model (MLLM) framework that explicitly models the diagnostic reasoning process through human-interpretable intermediate stages (rhythm, conduction, morphology, and impression) to derive final classification results. Furthermore, we introduce Structured Set Policy Optimization (SSPO) to jointly optimize adherence to this structured reasoning format and the accuracy of variable-size diagnostic sets, without requiring manually annotated reasoning traces. Extensive experiments on diverse ECG benchmarks demonstrate the significant superiority of our approach in diagnostic accuracy, while simultaneously providing interpretable clinical reasoning. Notably, reasoning quality evaluations confirm that SSPO substantially enhances the clinical validity of the generated rationales. These findings reveal that moving beyond direct label prediction toward structured reasoning offers a more clinically aligned direction for future ECG modeling.

Large language models (LLMs) enable waveform-to-text ECG interpretation and interactive clinical questioning, yet most ECG-LLM systems still rely on weak signal-text alignment and retrieval without explicit physiological or causal structure. This limits grounding, temporal reasoning, and counterfactual "what-if" analysis central to clinical decision-making. We propose CARE-ECG, a causally structured ECG-language reasoning framework that unifies representation learning, diagnosis, and explanation in a single pipeline. CARE-ECG encodes multi-lead ECGs into temporally organized latent biomarkers, performs causal graph inference for probabilistic diagnosis, and supports counterfactual assessment via structural causal models. To improve faithfulness, CARE-ECG grounds language outputs through causal retrieval-augmented generation and a modular agentic pipeline that integrates history, diagnosis, and response with verification. Across multiple ECG benchmarks and expert QA settings, CARE-ECG improves diagnostic accuracy and explanation faithfulness while reducing hallucinations (e.g., 0.84 accuracy on Expert-ECG-QA and 0.76 on SCP-mapped PTB-XL under GPT-4). Overall, CARE-ECG provides traceable reasoning by exposing key latent drivers, causal evidence paths, and how alternative physiological states would change outcomes.