HVR-Met: A Hypothesis-Verification-Replanning Agentic System for Extreme Weather Diagnosis
Authors: Shuo Tang, Jiadong Zhang, Gengxian Zhou, Qizhao Jin, Qinxuan Wang, Yi Hu, Ning Hu, Hongchang Ren, +6 more
Abstract
While deep learning-based weather forecasting paradigms have made significant strides, addressing extreme weather diagnostics remains a formidable challenge. This gap exists primarily because the diagnostic process demands sophisticated multi-step logical reasoning, dynamic tool invocation, and expert-level prior judgment. Although agents possess inherent advantages in task decomposition and autonomous execution, current architectures are still hampered by critical bottlenecks: inadequate expert knowledge integration, a lack of professional-grade iterative reasoning loops, and the absence of fine-grained validation and evaluation systems for complex workflows under extreme conditions. To this end, we propose HVR-Met, a multi-agent meteorological diagnostic system characterized by the deep integration of expert knowledge. Its central innovation is the ``Hypothesis-Verification-Replanning'' closed-loop mechanism, which facilitates sophisticated iterative reasoning for anomalous meteorological signals during extreme weather events. To bridge gaps within existing evaluation frameworks, we further introduce a novel benchmark focused on atomic-level subtasks. Experimental evidence demonstrates that the system excels in complex diagnostic scenarios.
Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events. However, expert-centered warning workflows are costly, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale throughout the warning-to-action process. Although recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM) agents have enabled the automation of weather-related tasks, existing studies remain centered on isolated scientific tasks and overlook the chain of interdependent processes required for operational extreme-weather early warning. To bridge this gap, this study investigates automated end-to-end extreme-weather early warning through LLM agents. We first develop SIREN-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 600 question-answer instances across 19 tasks, and covering four individual warning procedures and an end-to-end warning chain. Evaluation on SIREN-Bench reveals substantial capability gaps in existing weather agent frameworks. This motivates us to develop SIREN, an experience-grounded agent framework inspired by experts' use of historical cases, which combines an agentic execution environment integrating heterogeneous weather evidence and tools with a family of agent harnesses that exploit historical cases through retrieval, skill distillation, and predictive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SIREN outperforms weather-agent baselines on both individual warning procedures and end-to-end warning chains.
The development of practical (multimodal) large language model assistants for Korean weather forecasters is hindered by the absence of a multidimensional, expert-level evaluation framework grounded in authoritative sources. To address this, we introduce K-MetBench, a diagnostic benchmark grounded in national qualification exams. It exposes critical gaps across four dimensions: expert visual reasoning of charts, logical validity via expert-verified rationales, Korean-specific geo-cultural comprehension, and fine-grained domain analysis. Our evaluation of 55 models reveals a profound modality gap in interpreting specialized diagrams and a reasoning gap where models hallucinate logic despite correct predictions. Crucially, Korean models outperform significantly larger global models in local contexts, demonstrating that parameter scaling alone cannot resolve cultural dependencies. K-MetBench serves as a roadmap for developing reliable, culturally aware expert AI agents. The dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/soyeonbot/K-MetBench .
To address insufficient contextualization, weak generalization, and poor scenario adaptation in tourism meteorological services, we propose SmartWeatherAgent--a unified three-stage architecture integrating intent recognition, hazard prediction, and reasoning-enhanced generation. The system fuses rule-based methods with large language models to parse queries at multiple granularities and employs a LightGBM model enriched with highland-specific features (e.g., wind speed abruptness rate), achieving an F1-Macro score of 0.605 with 1.60 ms latency on high-wind, precipitation, and low-temperature events. A 12-round micro-step prompt self-optimization loop boosts the composite warning quality score S_final from 4.2 (B01) to 8.9 (B12, +112%). Key improvements include a sharp rise in B08 from data source citation (6.5 -> 8.5), sustained high performance in B10 via physical mechanism explanation, and a peak scientific rigor score of 9.2 in B12 through explicit uncertainty statements. The system autonomously generates structured warnings that integrate causal mechanisms, spatiotemporal evolution, quantitative evidence, regulatory references, and confidence statements--enhancing professional depth, logical rigor, and scientific soundness, and advancing meteorological services toward proactive perception, explainable decision-making, and intelligent agency.