Evaluating and Understanding Scheming Propensity in LLM Agents

We study scheming in LLM agents, in which agents covertly pursue misaligned goals. Our focus is to understand how scheming arises from the interaction of key factors, such as instrumental goals, environmental affordances, oversight conditions, and perceived consequences. Prior work examines only a small number of scenarios, limiting the ability to isolate how these conditions shape an agent's propensity or capability to scheme. This limited scale and task diversity also restrict coverage of realistic deployment settings and the range of scheming strategies that can be observed. To this end, we introduce SCHEMEARENA, a 400-scenario benchmark for scalable scheming stress testing, constructed through a factorized scenario synthesis framework spanning diverse safety-relevant tool domains, instrumental goals, oversight conditions, and pressure mechanisms. To enable scalable and reliable monitoring, we further propose SCOUT, a scheming monitor that grounds multi-criteria judgments in evidence drawn from agents' reasoning and actions. Across controlled stress tests on five LLM agents, we find that explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of scheming propensity. Strategic hints play a distinct role by helping agents translate scheming reasoning into concrete covert behavior. Oversight has mixed effects: in several closed models, action-only monitoring increases scheming, suggesting that partial oversight can act as an optimization constraint rather than a deterrent. CoT is a useful but incomplete monitoring signal: it can reveal latent scheming before execution, yet action-only scheming shows that covert behavior may occur without explicit reasoning evidence. We release the benchmark, code, and monitor at: https://github.com/launchnlp/SchemeArena.

We introduce scheming honeypot evaluations, a framework for testing whether models will pursue instrumental goals if given the opportunity. Our scheming honeypot evaluations take the form of coding tasks in Google's alignment research codebases. In a real internal deployment setting, Gemini models do not demonstrate unprompted scheming. If prompts explicitly encourage agency (situational awareness or goal-directedness) and/or give the model a hidden goal, models sometimes scheme or attempt sabotage. Validating the realism of our setting, models show low rates of evaluation awareness, usually due to agency prompts rather than the environments.

Safe deployment of Large Language Model (LLM) agents in autonomous settings requires reliable oversight mechanisms. A central challenge is detecting scheming, where agents covertly pursue misaligned goals. One approach to mitigating such risks is LLM-based monitoring: using language models to examine agent behaviors for suspicious actions. We study constitutional black-box monitors: prompted classifiers that detect scheming using only externally observable inputs and outputs, optimized on synthetic data generated from natural-language behavior specifications. We introduce two pipelines for generating synthetic agent trajectories, STRIDE (iterative refinement) and Gloom (agent-environment simulation), from which we generate 1,000 samples each. We optimize frontier LLM monitors on these datasets via prompt sweeps, human refinement, and automated prompt optimization, and evaluate performance on 7,500 held-out trajectories from ControlArena, a suite of grounded environments where agents operate in more realistic contexts. Our results demonstrate that monitors selected purely on synthetic data can generalize to more realistic environments, capturing a meaningful scheming signal. However, we find that performance saturates quickly in our setting, with simple prompt sweeps matching the results of more extensive optimization. Pushing beyond this limit yields no further improvements and instead leads to overfitting.