Implicit Statistical Inference in Transformers: Approximating Likelihood-Ratio Tests In-Context

Transformers have demonstrated remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. The strong ICL performance of transformers is commonly believed to arise from their ability to implicitly execute certain algorithms on the context, thereby enhancing prediction and generation. In this work, we investigate how transformers with softmax attention perform in-context learning on linear classification data. We first construct a class of multi-layer transformers that can perform in-context logistic regression, with each layer exactly performing one step of normalized gradient descent on an in-context loss. Then, we show that our constructed transformer can be obtained through (i) training a single self-attention layer supervised by one-step gradient descent, and (ii) recurrently applying the trained layer to obtain a looped model. Training convergence guarantees of the self-attention layer and out-of-distribution generalization guarantees of the looped model are provided. Our results advance the theoretical understanding of ICL mechanism by showcasing how softmax transformers can effectively act as in-context learners.

Transformers have demonstrated a strong ability for in-context learning (ICL), enabling models to solve previously unseen tasks using only example input output pairs provided at inference time. While prior theoretical work has established conditions under which transformers can perform linear classification in-context, the empirical scaling behavior governing when this mechanism succeeds remains insufficiently characterized. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study of in-context learning for Gaussian-mixture binary classification tasks. Building on the theoretical framework of Frei and Vardi (2024), we analyze how in-context test accuracy depends on three fundamental factors: the input dimension, the number of in-context examples, and the number of pre-training tasks. Using a controlled synthetic setup and a linear in-context classifier formulation, we isolate the geometric conditions under which models successfully infer task structure from context alone. We additionally investigate the emergence of benign overfitting, where models memorize noisy in-context labels while still achieving strong generalization performance on clean test data. Through extensive sweeps across dimensionality, sequence length, task diversity, and signal-to-noise regimes, we identify the parameter regions in which this phenomenon arises and characterize how it depends on data geometry and training exposure. Our results provide a comprehensive empirical map of scaling behavior in in-context classification, highlighting the critical role of dimensionality, signal strength, and contextual information in determining when in-context learning succeeds and when it fails.

Transformers achieve remarkable performance by jointly learning broad families of tasks during pretraining and adapting to unseen tasks from only a short prompt. Yet a rigorous mathematical and statistical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. This paper aims to study how Transformers exploit shared cross-task structure and how this structure affects the sample complexity of in-context learning (ICL). Specifically, we characterize task-space complexity through covering numbers under a prescribed metric, thereby quantifying the low-dimensional cross-task structure without requiring an explicit parametric representation. The resulting cover provides a set of anchor functions, which we use to introduce a task-identification-and-evaluation procedure: context observations localize an unseen task among the anchor functions, and the response at a query is predicted by aggregating the corresponding anchor function query evaluations. For approximation, we explicitly construct a Transformer with Softmax attention to approximate this procedure. For generalization, we derive an error bound that separates the effects of the number of pretraining tasks and the prompt length. The scaling with respect to the number of pretraining tasks is governed by the intrinsic dimensions of the task space and input domain; once sufficiently many tasks are available, the dependence on the prompt context length becomes dimension-free. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to quantify cross-task complexity for general nonlinear task families and explicitly construct a Transformer that exploits their low-dimensional structure to perform ICL. Our theory provides a quantitative explanation of how joint pretraining across related tasks improves in-context generalization.