High-resolution weather-guided surrogate modeling for data-efficient cross-location building energy prediction

Accurately modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of blast wave propagation remains a longstanding challenge due to its highly nonlinear behavior, sharp gradients, and burdensome computational cost. While machine learning-based surrogate models offer fast inference as a promising alternative, they suffer from degraded accuracy, particularly evaluated on complex urban layouts or out-of-distribution scenarios. Moreover, autoregressive prediction strategies in such models are prone to error accumulation over long forecasting horizons, limiting their robustness for extended-time simulations. To address these limitations, we propose RGD-Blast, a robust and generalizable deep surrogate model for high-fidelity, long-term blast wave forecasting. RGD-Blast incorporates a multi-scale module to capture both global flow patterns and local boundary interactions, effectively mitigating error accumulation during autoregressive prediction. We introduce a dynamic-static feature coupling mechanism that fuses time-varying pressure fields with static source and layout features, thereby enhancing out-of-distribution generalization. Experiments demonstrate that RGD-Blast achieves a two-order-of-magnitude speedup over traditional numerical methods while maintaining comparable accuracy. In generalization tests on unseen building layouts, the model achieves an average RMSE below 0.01 and an R2 exceeding 0.89 over 280 consecutive time steps. Additional evaluations under varying blast source locations and explosive charge weights further validate its generalization, substantially advancing the state of the art in long-term blast wave modeling.

Kilometer-scale regional weather forecasting is essential for local weather warnings and weather-sensitive decisions. Existing data-driven approaches often rely on numerical forecasts for large-scale guidance or require additional training of global forecasting components. Pretrained global weather models offer an efficient source of large-scale forecasts, motivating their reuse to guide high-resolution regional prediction. However, this coupling requires aligning global and regional representations across different grids and integrating global guidance with local interactions to advance regional states. We propose ScaleCast, a regional forecasting framework that addresses these challenges through Global-Regional Alignment. Its Global-Regional Conversion module aligns joint global and regional representations with regional locations, while the Global-Regional Alignment and Dynamics block combines aligned guidance with regional neighborhood interactions. Experiments using ERA5 global analyses on a 0.25-degree grid and CERRA regional reanalysis at 5.5 km spacing demonstrate improved regional forecasts across surface and upper-air variables, with a single trained model supporting multiple global forecast drivers (i.e., Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, and HRES) without specific retraining. Fine-tuning on HRRR at 3 km spacing further demonstrates the framework's adaptability to a different regional domain and spatial resolution. Windstorm case studies show improved cyclone positioning and core-pressure estimates, while comparisons with HadISD station observations show closer agreement with local temperature and humidity changes.

The building energy community lacks a foundational thermal model, i.e., a single pretrained model capable of generalizing across diverse buildings, climates, and control strategies without building-specific calibration. Achieving this vision requires architectural principles that capture universal thermal dynamics rather than memorizing building-specific patterns. We take a step toward this goal by presenting a physics-informed transformer architecture that embeds domain knowledge, e.g., derivative enrichment and Euler-based numerical integration, into a decoder-only framework. We incorporate static building features extracted from simulation models and employ Rotary Position Embedding attention to capture temporal dependencies. Evaluated on the CityLearn dataset spanning 247 residential buildings across three climate zones, our model achieves one-step prediction accuracy (RMSE of 0.30°C in Texas, 0.29°C in Vermont) while outperforming both traditional baselines and fine-tuned Time-Series Foundation Models. We also demonstrate zero-shot transferability: models trained on as few as two buildings generalize to unseen buildings and climate zones without fine-tuning. Despite the limitation of simulated residential buildings, our results establish physics-informed architectural principles as a promising foundation for universal building thermal models.