math.STMar 11, 2026

Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confounding

Authors: Vladimir Vovk, Ruodu Wang

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Abstract

This note extends conformal e-prediction to cover the case where there is observed confounding between the random object XX and its label YY. We consider both the case where the observed data is IID and a case where some dependence between observations is permitted.

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Figure 1: The main causal graph of this note
Figure 2: The repeated causal graph

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