DIALECTIC: A Multi-Agent System for Startup Evaluation

Large language models (LLMs) can read startup pitch decks, but letting them emit investment scores directly invites score inflation, run-to-run variance and rationales that are hard to audit. We describe DealsFlow, a human-in-the-loop agentic harness deployed at a UK early-stage fund. The LLM reads the deck, cites evidence and rates each category; code combines the ratings, caps them and only ever lowers them. Three mechanisms implement this: a stage-aware corroboration ceiling (78, 70 or 60 out of 100) on factual categories without external evidence; a sceptic call that may lower but never raise a score; and a pre-fetch pattern that retrieves and indexes all evidence before a single generation pass. We evaluate on $N=243$ SEIS/EIS investments with recorded outcomes. Because recent investments have unresolved outcomes, we use the 142 that are at least three years old. There, the full pipeline's score has Spearman $ρ=0.45$ (95% CI 0.32 to 0.57) with the total-value multiple and AUC 0.71 for identifying write-offs, against $ρ=0.38$ and AUC 0.68 for an unconstrained LLM. The gain is small and comes mostly from the sceptic call; we did not test whether its lower-only rule matters. Investments that later exceeded $2\times$ had 64% of factual categories corroborated, against 38% for write-offs (omnibus Kruskal-Wallis test over five outcome groups, $p=0.031$), and our retrieval was not date-restricted, so these figures may overstate screening skill. In a study of 20 inbound applications, analyst time per application fell from 44.7 to 18.9 minutes including verification and correction, and 84% of 240 cited claims were fully supported by their sources, but 70% of reports needed at least one correction.

We present a fully automated multi-agent framework for corporate due diligence and market analysis in venture capital. The system runs on an event-driven orchestration architecture, combining Large Language Models (LLMs) with real-time web retrieval to synthesize unstructured data into structured investment intelligence. A central technical contribution is a programmatic extraction pipeline that reverse-engineers the frontend-to-backend communication of the Greek Business Registry ($Γ$.E.MH.), querying dynamic endpoints to retrieve official financial filings that are then parsed using a layout-aware OCR extractor. A structural fallback mechanism explicitly flags data absence rather than generating unverified figures, directly targeting hallucination in financial contexts. All workflow artifacts are publicly available to support replication.

This study shows that textual descriptors alone can predict early-stage startup success, defined as Exit, without relying on contextual, financial, or human capital variables. Using venture capital-curated datasets covering 7,419 startups over 20 years, the research isolates text-based framing variables and engineers 850 features via startup narrative mapping. Data subsets and vector embeddings are evaluated for statistical significance, followed by supervised machine learning experiments across six models. Binary Exit prediction using Logistic Regression attains an F1 of 0.48 with 0.55 recall using all features (excluding embeddings), and an F1 of 0.26 with 0.59 recall using textual descriptors only (including embeddings). Feature analysis indicates that optimized densities of hyping markers such as adjectives, jargon, and buzzwords are associated with higher Exit probability, while excessive statement or name length is associated with lower probability. The study also introduces a quantifiable Hyping Score for potential application in venture screening. Findings indicate that startup framing can serve as standalone predictor of economic outcomes, in high-information-asymmetry investment environments.