Distributional Uncertainty and Adaptive Decision-Making in System Co-design

Designing multi-agent robotic systems requires reasoning across tightly coupled decisions spanning heterogeneous domains, including robot design, fleet composition, and planning. Much effort has been devoted to isolated improvements in these domains, whereas system-level co-design considering trade-offs and task requirements remains underexplored. In this work, we present a formal and compositional framework for the task-driven co-design of heterogeneous multi-robot systems. Building on a monotone co-design theory, we introduce general abstractions of robots, fleets, planners, executors, and evaluators as interconnected design problems with well-defined interfaces that are agnostic to both implementations and tasks. This structure enables efficient joint optimization of robot design, fleet composition, and planning under task-specific performance constraints. A series of case studies demonstrates the capabilities of the framework. Various component models can be seamlessly incorporated, including new robot types, task profiles, and probabilistic sensing objectives, while non-obvious design alternatives are systematically uncovered with optimality guarantees. The results highlight the flexibility, scalability, and interpretability of the proposed approach, and illustrate how formal co-design enables principled reasoning about complex heterogeneous multi-robot systems.

Decision support has become sophisticated at exploring uncertainty, but much less so at representing the architecture of the decision itself. As a result, the decision space is often narrowed before uncertainty is analyzed, leaving interactions among choices and the effects of alternatives they imply largely invisible. This paper introduces multichoice modeling, a framework for making large decision configuration spaces explicit and computationally explorable under uncertainty. Drawing on the logic of rugged landscapes, we conceptualize such problems as contingent performance landscapes, where interdependent choices generate configuration-specific outcomes whose value changes across uncertain futures. The computational framework combines multidimensional decision and uncertainty spaces in a single simulation. Further, variance-based sensitivity analysis is used for identifying influential choices, and conditional distribution analysis for comparing configuration-specific performance profiles. We demonstrate the framework through three case studies: a manufacturing process upgrade, M&A strategy, and mortgage design. By contrasting conventional uncertainty-only analysis with multichoice modeling, the cases show how opening the decision configuration space can reveal unexpected complementarities, near-best configurations with different risk profiles, and strategies that were not apparent as alternatives at the outset.

The scenario approach is an established data-driven design framework that comes equipped with a powerful theory linking design complexity to generalization properties. In this approach, data are simultaneously used both for design and for certifying the design's reliability, without resorting to a separate test dataset. This paper takes a step further by guaranteeing additional properties, useful in post-design usage but not considered during the design phase. To this end, we introduce a two-level framework of appropriateness: baseline appropriateness, which guides the design process, and post-design appropriateness, which serves as a criterion for a posteriori evaluation. We provide distribution-free upper bounds on the risk of failing to meet the post-design appropriateness; these bounds are computable without using any additional test data. Under additional assumptions, lower bounds are also derived. As part of an effort to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology, the paper presents two practical examples in H2 and pole-placement problems. Moreover, a method is provided to infer comprehensive distributional knowledge of relevant performance indexes from the available dataset.