cs.LGMar 16, 2026

Real-Time Driver Safety Scoring Through Inverse Crash Probability Modeling

Authors: Joyjit RoySamaresh Kumar SinghSushanta DasMojtaba Bahramgiri

Abstract

Road crashes remain a leading cause of preventable fatalities. Existing prediction models predominantly produce binary outcomes, which offer limited actionable insights for realtime driver feedback. These approaches often lack continuous risk quantification, interpretability, and explicit consideration of vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and cyclists. This research introduces SafeDriver-IQ, a framework that transforms binary crash classifiers into continuous 0-100 safety scores by combining national crash statistics with naturalistic driving data from autonomous vehicles. The framework fuses National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) crash records with Waymo Open Motion Dataset scenarios, engineers domain-informed features, and incorporates a calibration layer grounded in transportation safety literature. Evaluation across 15 complementary analyses indicates that the framework reliably differentiates high-risk from low-risk driving conditions with strong discriminative performance. Findings further reveal that 87% of crashes involve multiple co-occurring risk factors, with non-linear compounding effects that increase the risk to 4.5x baseline. SafeDriver-IQ delivers proactive, explainable safety intelligence relevant to advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), fleet management, and urban infrastructure planning. Beyond the specific application, the inverse modeling paradigm is domain-agnostic. Any binary risk classifier can be converted into a continuous, explainable safety-scoring system using the same pipeline without retraining. This framework shifts the focus from reactive crash counting to real-time risk prevention.

Explore similar work

Jul 29, 2026cs.MA

PRISM: An Agentic Multi-Model Architecture for Proactive Safety in Autonomous Transportation Systems

Autonomous and intelligent transportation systems operate in complex urban environments where safety depends on interactions among vehicle behavior, environmental conditions, and vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians and cyclists. Most advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) employ reactive mechanisms that activate only after hazards have emerged, a critical limitation underscored by rising VRU fatalities in the United States. This study introduces PRISM (Proactive Risk Intelligence and Safety Management), an agentic multi-model safety architecture that transitions from reactive crash avoidance to proactive, continuous risk management. PRISM employs inverse crash-probability modeling to convert binary crash classifiers into dynamic, interpretable safety scores. Three specialized models addressing trajectory kinematics, environmental risk, and VRU interaction operate concurrently, coordinated by a reasoning layer incorporating reinforcement learning, contextual memory, and feature-level attribution. The system provides graduated safety interventions across four tiers, from silent monitoring to emergency alerts. Unlike rule-based systems with static thresholds, PRISM dynamically adjusts safety parameters in real time. Validated across 1,296 scenarios from three naturalistic driving datasets without dataset-specific retraining, the system yielded a mean safety score of 68 out of 100, classified 77.6% of scenarios as advisory, and flagged a near-miss rate of 3.8%, with 11% of scenarios escalating to intervention or emergency response. Feature attribution consistently identified trajectory risk and VRU proximity as primary safety factors. PRISM provides a unified, interpretable framework for proactive transportation safety with emphasis on VRU risk reduction in dense urban environments.
Joyjit Roy, Samaresh Kumar Singh, Sushanta Das
Jul 13, 2026cs.RO

Comparison-Based Ordinal Learning for Proactive Driving Risk Assessment

Real-time driving risk assessment provides an essential basis for proactive safety by identifying and quantifying the danger of ongoing road interactions before adverse outcomes occur. However, due to the scarcity of collision data and frame-level risk labels, existing driving risk assessment methods often rely on surrogate objectives, which may imperfectly align with true collision risk and not faithfully reflect the relative danger of driving interaction. This paper proposes a comparison-based ordinal risk learning framework that learns collision-relevant risk scores from pairwise supervision in driving data, directly modeling relative risk ordering without requiring numerical frame-level risk labels. We derive pairwise comparisons from three sources of event-structured driving data for such ordinal risk learning: temporal progression within safety-critical sequences, event-level contrast between dangerous and normal interactions, and physics-based counterfactual perturbations. On this basis, instantiations with three risk-scoring function parameterizations are implemented, including directly learning risk scores from comparison data, and aligning existing single or multiple surrogate-based risk models. The proposed framework is evaluated on the 100-Car and SHRP2 naturalistic driving datasets using a proactive collision warning task. Results show that the proposed framework improves high-recall risk discrimination, warning precision, and warning lead time over representative surrogate-based baselines across both in-distribution and out-of-distribution evaluations. These results suggest that the proposed framework can contribute to proactive safety research by providing more reliable risk assessment for automated driving systems and safety-critical driving interactions.
Zhuoren Li, Yi Zhong, Weiqi Zhang +4
Date pendingcs.RO

Data-Driven Risk Fields for Safer End-to-End Autonomous Driving

Safety is a fundamental requirement for autonomous driving, yet existing end-to-end driving models still lack explicit risk-aware learning capacities. Existing rule-based risk models provide interpretable safety priors, yet their absolute risk scores depend on handcrafted functions, coefficients, and thresholds. Learning-based risk representations reduce part of this manual design, but their supervision often relies on occupancy-derived labels or heuristic cost values, which may not capture ego-conditioned planning risk. In this paper, we propose DRiF, a data-driven risk-field framework for safer end-to-end autonomous driving. DRiF learns a shared BEV feature with static map segmentation, dynamic risk prediction, and vehicle planning. For dynamic risk learning, DRiF converts rule-based safety priors into pairwise risk labels, and trains the risk field to preserve relative risk ordering instead of regressing handcrafted absolute scores. Experiments on Bench2Drive show that DRiF achieves competitive overall performance, with consistent improvements in driving score, success rate, and collision-related metrics. These results establish relative risk supervision as an effective way to connect explicit safety structure with end-to-end planning. The data and code will be publicly available.
Yuanxin Tian, Zhiyuan Liu, Jinhao Li +9