Temporal Narrative Monitoring in Dynamic Information Environments
Authors: David Farr, Stephen Prochaska, Jack Moody, Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, Iain Cruickshank, Kate Starbird, Jevin West
Organizations: School of Information Science, University of Washington, Seattle, USA · Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA · School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA · Human Centered Design Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Comprehending the information environment (IE) during crisis events is challenging due to the rapid change and abstract nature of the domain. Many approaches focus on snapshots via classification methods or network approaches to describe the IE in crisis, ignoring the temporal nature of how information changed over time. This work presents a system-oriented framework for modeling emerging narratives as temporally evolving semantic structures without requiring prior label specification. By integrating semantic embeddings, density-based clustering, and rolling temporal linkage, the framework represents narratives as persistent yet adaptive entities within a shared semantic space. We apply the methodology to a real-world crisis event and evaluate system behavior through stratified cluster validation and temporal lifecycle analysis. Results demonstrate high cluster coherence and reveal heterogeneous narrative lifecycles characterized by both transient fragments and stable narrative anchors. We ground our approach in situational awareness theory, supporting perception and comprehension of the IE by transforming unstructured social media streams into interpretable, temporally structured representations. The resulting system provides a methodology for monitoring and decision support in dynamic information environments.
Figures & tables
Fig. 1 : System architecture for temporal narrative monitoring. External events drive ingestion into a shared semantic space where temporal clustering produces evolving narrative clusters in a semantic state space. Centroid-based monitoring and generative summaries support analyst review and adaptive feedback.
The modern news cycle has been fundamentally reshaped by the rapid exchange of information online. As a result, media framing shifts dynamically as new information, political responses, and social reactions emerge. Understanding how these narratives form, propagate, and evolve is essential for interpreting public discourse during moments of crisis. In this study, we examine the temporal and semantic dynamics of reporting for violent and catastrophic events using a large-scale corpus of 126,602 news articles collected from online publishers. We quantify narrative change through publication volume, semantic drift, semantic dispersion, and term relevance. Our results show that sudden events of impact exhibit structured and predictable news-cycle patterns characterized by rapid surges in coverage, early semantic drift, and gradual declines toward the baseline. In addition, our results indicate the terms that are driving the temporal patterns.
Emily Lugos, Maurício Gruppi
Department of Computing Sciences, Villanova University, Villanova, PA, USA
This paper proposes a multi-layer AI framework for information landscape analysis in the context of information disorder. Rather than treating misinformation detection as a binary fact-checking task, the framework analyzes political and media content across multiple dimensions, including source reliability, factual structure, framing, bias, emotional activation, manipulation patterns, and propagation dynamics. The goal is to move beyond isolated claim verification toward a structured representation of the informational environment surrounding an event, entity, or narrative. We argue that AI systems for media analysis should support epistemic mapping: a transparent, multi-dimensional account of how facts, interpretations, actors, and narratives interact over time. The paper presents the conceptual architecture, analytical layers, and methodological rationale of the framework, with the aim of supporting more nuanced, explainable, and critically useful tools for information disorder research.
Detecting climate disinformation narratives typically relies on fixed taxonomies, which do not accommodate emerging narratives. Thus, we re-frame narrative detection as a retrieval task: given a narrative's core message as a query, rank texts from a corpus by alignment with that narrative. This formulation requires no predefined label set and can accommodate emerging narratives. We repurpose three climate disinformation datasets (CARDS, Climate Obstruction, climate change subset of PolyNarrative) for retrieval evaluation and propose SpecFi, a framework that generates hypothetical documents to bridge the gap between abstract narrative descriptions and their concrete textual instantiations. SpecFi uses community summaries from graph-based community detection as few-shot examples for generation, achieving a MAP of 0.505 on CARDS without access to narrative labels. We further introduce narrative variance, an embedding-based difficulty metric, and show via partial correlation analysis that standard retrieval degrades on high-variance narratives (BM25 loses 63.4% of MAP), while SpecFi-CS remains robust (32.7% loss). Our analysis also reveals that unsupervised community summaries converge on descriptions close to expert-crafted taxonomies, suggesting that graph-based methods can surface narrative structure from unlabeled text.
Max Upravitelev, Veronika Solopova, Charlott Jakob +3
Technische Universität Berlin · German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) · BIFOLD – Berlin Institute for the Foundations of Learning and Data +1