AI Mental Models: Learned Intuition and Deliberation in a Bounded Neural Architecture
Organizations: School of Creative Science and Engineering Faculty of Science and Engineering Waseda University
Abstract
This paper asks whether a bounded neural architecture can exhibit a meaningful division of labor between intuition and deliberation on a classic 64-item syllogistic reasoning benchmark. More broadly, the benchmark is relevant to ongoing debates about world models and multi-stage reasoning in AI. It provides a controlled setting for testing whether a learned system can develop structured internal computation rather than only one-shot associative prediction. Experiment 1 evaluates a direct neural baseline for predicting full 9-way human response distributions under 5-fold cross-validation. Experiment 2 introduces a bounded dual-path architecture with separate intuition and deliberation pathways, motivated by computational mental-model theory (Khemlani & Johnson-Laird, 2022). Under cross-validation, bounded intuition reaches an aggregate correlation of r = 0.7272, whereas bounded deliberation reaches r = 0.8152, and the deliberation advantage is significant across folds (p = 0.0101). The largest held-out gains occur for NVC, Eca, and Oca, suggesting improved handling of rejection responses and c-a conclusions. A canonical 80:20 interpretability run and a five-seed stability sweep further indicate that the deliberation pathway develops sparse, differentiated internal structure, including an Oac-leaning state, a dominant workhorse state, and several weakly used or unused states whose exact indices vary across runs. These findings are consistent with reasoning-like internal organization under bounded conditions, while stopping short of any claim that the model reproduces full sequential processes of model construction, counterexample search, and conclusion revision.
Figures & tables
| Label | Reading |
|---|---|
| Aac | All a are c |
| Eac | No a are c |
| Iac | Some a are c |
| Oac | Some a are not c |
| Aca | All c are a |
| Eca | No c are a |
| Model | Role in paper | Input | Hidden / state size | Output | Parameters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct MLP | Experiment 1 baseline | 29 | 64 | 9-way softmax distribution | 2,505 |
| Intuition pathway | Experiment 2 first-pass system | 29 | 4 | 9-way softmax distribution | 165 |
| Deliberation pathway | Experiment 2 second-stage system | 29 | 24 | 9-way softmax distribution | 470 |
| Experiment 2 total | Combined bounded model | 29 | 4 + 24 | 2 x 9-way softmax distributions | 635 |
| Model | Aggregate correlation | 95% bootstrap CI | Aggregate RMSE | Aggregate MAE | Mean fold correlation | Fold SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Experiment 1 direct MLP | 0.7105 | [0.6309, 0.7825] | 0.1301 | 0.0675 | 0.7140 | 0.0980 |
| Experiment 2 intuition | 0.7272 | [0.6649, 0.7868] | 0.1156 | 0.0674 | 0.7212 | 0.0838 |
| Experiment 2 deliberation | 0.8152 | [0.7608, 0.8634] | 0.1029 | 0.0536 | 0.8142 | 0.0710 |
| Response type | Direct MLP | Intuition | Deliberation | Deliberation - Intuition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aac | 0.9718 | 0.7353 | 0.8450 | +0.1097 |
| Eac | 0.7816 | 0.8259 | 0.8156 | -0.0103 |
| Iac | 0.7741 | 0.6894 | 0.8441 | +0.1547 |
| Oac | 0.8033 | 0.6336 | 0.7050 | +0.0714 |
| Aca | -0.0170 | 0.1682 | 0.2169 | +0.0488 |
| Eca | 0.4050 | 0.5203 | 0.7790 | +0.2587 |
| Comparison | t | p | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deliberation vs intuition | 4.5914 | 0.0101 | Significant deliberation advantage |
| Deliberation vs direct MLP | 1.5678 | 0.1920 | Numerical advantage, not significant |
| Intuition vs direct MLP | 0.1047 | 0.9217 | No reliable difference |
| Fold | Experiment 1 direct MLP | Experiment 2 intuition | Experiment 2 deliberation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.8523 | 0.6599 | 0.7313 |
| 2 | 0.6223 | 0.6271 | 0.7478 |
| 3 | 0.5859 | 0.8284 | 0.8627 |
| 4 | 0.7350 | 0.7391 | 0.8256 |
| 5 | 0.7745 | 0.7517 | 0.9036 |
| Seed | Test intuition r | Test deliberation r | Deliberation gain | Dominant test state | Dead states | Oac-leaning state | Strongest ablation state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7051 | 0.8739 | +0.1688 | state 2 | state 3, state 5 | state 3 | state 2 |
| 2 | 0.7291 | 0.8072 | +0.0781 | state 3 | state 5 | state 3 | state 1 |
| 3 | 0.7606 | 0.8141 | +0.0535 | state 1 | state 2, state 4, state 5 | state 5 | state 5 |
| 4 | 0.6983 | 0.8061 | +0.1077 | state 1 | state 2, state 3 | state 1 | state 1 |
| 5 | 0.8261 | 0.8372 | +0.0111 | state 4 | state 2, state 3, state 5 | state 4 | state 4 |
| State | Train gate winners | Test gate winners |
|---|---|---|
| State 1 | 13 | 1 |
| State 2 | 6 | 1 |
| State 3 | 0 | 0 |
| State 4 | 22 | 11 |
| State 5 | 10 | 0 |
| State | Observed role | Main evidence |
|---|---|---|
| State 1 | Oac -leaning specialist for O / E -minor items | Average state distribution dominated by Oac ; removal harms Oac behavior |
| State 2 | Universal-conclusion contributor for AA and AE valid syllogisms | Wins on AA1 , AA4 , AE1 , AE3 , and AE4 ; removal causes moderate held-out loss |
| State 3 | Effectively unused | Never wins on train or test; ablation has almost no effect |
| State 4 | Dominant general-purpose state for many I / O -premise and NVC -heavy items | Most frequent gate winner on train and test; strongest association with Iac , Ica , Oca , and NVC ; largest ablation effect |
| State 5 | E -premise / EE - EA contributor | Wins on EA* , EI* , and all four EE items in training; ablation still causes large performance loss |
| Ablation | Test correlation | Correlation drop | Test RMSE | RMSE increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| none | 0.8475 | 0.0000 | 0.0946 | 0.0000 |
| remove state 1 | 0.7331 | 0.1143 | 0.1310 | 0.0364 |
| remove state 2 | 0.7384 | 0.1091 | 0.1292 | 0.0345 |
| remove state 3 | 0.8474 | 0.0000 | 0.0946 | 0.0000 |
| remove state 4 | 0.2642 | 0.5833 | 0.2700 | 0.1754 |
| remove state 5 | 0.5519 | 0.2956 | 0.1796 | 0.0850 |