Leveraging LLMs and Social Media to Understand User Perception of Smartphone-Based Earthquake Early Warnings

Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is central to earthquake early warning, yet many operational systems depend on dense regional seismic networks and region-specific calibration. This creates a spatial coverage barrier for high-risk areas with sparse sensing infrastructure. Single-station learning offers a lower-cost alternative, but existing models often face an accuracy--latency trade-off and may degrade under regional distribution shift. We present SeisMamba, a lightweight Mamba-based architecture for low-latency magnitude estimation from minimally processed three-component seismic waveforms recorded at a single station. SeisMamba combines hierarchical convolutional encoding, sparse selective state-space modelling, multi-scale feature fusion, and an auxiliary temporal prediction head to support efficient long-sequence waveform analysis. On the STEAD benchmark, SeisMamba achieves the best MSE, RMSE, and $R^2$ among tested baselines while requiring only 0.55 ms for a batch of 32 waveforms on an NVIDIA T4 GPU, making it about three times faster than transformer-based baselines. We further conduct a Chile--Taiwan regional hold-out experiment as a diagnostic test of cross-region deployment, where SeisMamba retains useful performance on geographically unseen seismic regions. These results suggest that selective state-space waveform modelling provides a promising accuracy--latency backbone for spatially distributed, low-cost earthquake early warning.

Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events. However, expert-centered warning workflows are costly, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale throughout the warning-to-action process. Although recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM) agents have enabled the automation of weather-related tasks, existing studies remain centered on isolated scientific tasks and overlook the chain of interdependent processes required for operational extreme-weather early warning. To bridge this gap, this study investigates automated end-to-end extreme-weather early warning through LLM agents. We first develop SIREN-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 600 question-answer instances across 19 tasks, and covering four individual warning procedures and an end-to-end warning chain. Evaluation on SIREN-Bench reveals substantial capability gaps in existing weather agent frameworks. This motivates us to develop SIREN, an experience-grounded agent framework inspired by experts' use of historical cases, which combines an agentic execution environment integrating heterogeneous weather evidence and tools with a family of agent harnesses that exploit historical cases through retrieval, skill distillation, and predictive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SIREN outperforms weather-agent baselines on both individual warning procedures and end-to-end warning chains.

Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncertainty in magnitude estimation of near class boundaries. These results indicate that the attention mechanisms in Transformers combined with adaptive classification effectively capture the temporal dynamics of seismic signals. The architectural advantage facilitates promising generalization to rare high-magnitude events, despite the inherent data scarcity characteristic of seismic catalogs. The adaptive accuracy provides a more realistic assessment of model performance, and the result suggests viability for real-time deployment.