Learning Response-Statistic Shifts and Parametric Roll Episodes from Wave--Vessel Time Series via LSTM Functional Models

Traditional time-domain prediction of vessel motions in irregular waves usually relies on superposing responses from many regular-wave components, which is computationally expensive for long-duration simulation and real-time applications. This issue is particularly relevant to unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), for which efficient and realistic motion prediction is needed for seakeeping assessment, simulation-based testing, and control-system development. This study applies an impulse response function (IRF)-based time-domain framework to predict vessel motions in short-crested irregular waves. Froude-Krylov, diffraction, and radiation loads are obtained from frequency-domain analysis and transformed into the time domain. Instantaneous responses are then evaluated directly through convolution-based force reconstruction, reducing the need for repeated regular-wave simulations. Weak nonlinear restoring effects are included by instantaneous wetted-surface pressure integration, and directional wave spectra are used to represent realistic sea states. The framework is validated against model-test measurements of an offshore supply vessel in long-crested beam irregular waves and full-scale measurements of a USV operating in real sea conditions. Predicted significant amplitudes, mean zero-crossing periods, standard deviations, and motion time histories agree well with measurements. The effect of directional-spectrum discretization is also examined. Results show that motion amplitudes are moderately sensitive to directional resolution, whereas motion periods are relatively insensitive. A 30 deg directional interval provides a practical balance between prediction accuracy and computational cost. The proposed framework offers an efficient tool for high-fidelity time-domain prediction of USV motions in realistic directional irregular seas.

Accurate prediction of hydrodynamic performance is central to ship design, yet high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics remains prohibitively expensive for large-scale parametric exploration. This motivates the development of data-driven surrogate models that provide rapid approximations to hydrodynamic predictions at substantially reduced cost. We present ShipNet, a geometric deep-learning surrogate that predicts both hull-surface pressure distributions and far-field free-surface wave patterns directly from hull geometry and speed. The network employs a regularized dynamic graph convolutional backbone on hull point clouds, with a multi-head decoder for simultaneous near-body pressure and free-surface elevation outputs. Training data consist of 420 inviscid free-surface simulations generated using a potential-flow panel method for two parent yacht hulls, each parameterized into 70 variants and evaluated at three speeds. ShipNet predicts per-point pressure coefficient and two-dimensional wave elevation map using a composite loss that combines point-wise regression and image-structure terms. On a geometry-held-out test set, ShipNet achieves R^2=0.98 for hull pressure and R^2=0.91 for wave fields. Inference requires approximately 0.15s per case, yielding over a 550x speedup relative to the potential-flow solver on conventional hardware. Limitations include the restricted geometry and speed ranges and the inviscid training data, while future work will extend the model to high-fidelity viscous simulations with physics-informed regularization.

Uncertainty propagation in high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic structural systems is pivotal in state-of-the-art performance-based design and risk assessment, where uncertainties from both excitations and structures, i.e., the aleatoric uncertainty, must be considered. This poses a significant challenge due to heavy computational demands. Machine learning techniques are thus introduced as metamodels to alleviate this burden. However, the "black box" nature of Machine learning models underscores the necessity of avoiding overly confident predictions, particularly when data and training efforts are insufficient. This creates a need, in addition to considering the aleatoric uncertainty, of estimating the uncertainty related to the prediction confidence, i.e., epistemic uncertainty, for machine learning-based metamodels. We developed a probabilistic metamodeling technique based on a variational long short-term memory (LSTM) with augmented inputs to simultaneously capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Key random system parameters are treated as augmented inputs alongside excitation series carrying record-to-record variability to capture the full range of aleatoric uncertainty. Meanwhile, epistemic uncertainty is effectively approximated via the Monte Carlo dropout scheme. Unlike computationally expensive full Bayesian approaches, this method incurs negligible additional training costs while enabling nearly cost-free uncertainty simulation. The proposed technique is demonstrated through multiple case studies involving stochastic seismic or wind excitations. Results show that the calibrated metamodels accurately reproduce nonlinear response time histories and provide confidence bounds indicating the associated epistemic uncertainty.