Concerning Uncertainty -- A Systematic Survey of Uncertainty-Aware XAI
Organizations: Jönköping International Business School, Gjuterigatan 5, 553 18 Jönköping, Sweden · Jönköping School of Engineering, Gjuterigatan 5, 553 18 Jönköping, Sweden · Eiendomsverdi AS, Nedre Slottsgate 8, 0157 Oslo, Norway · DISI, University of Bologna, Mura Anteo Zamboni 7, 40126 Bologna, Italy ·
Abstract
This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into explanatory pipelines and how such methods are evaluated. Across the literature, three recurring approaches to uncertainty quantification emerge (Bayesian, Monte Carlo, and Conformal methods), alongside distinct strategies for integrating uncertainty into explanations: assessing trustworthiness, constraining models or explanations, and explicitly communicating uncertainty. Evaluation practices remain fragmented and largely model centered, with limited attention to users and inconsistent reporting of reliability properties (e.g., calibration, coverage, explanation stability). Recent work leans towards calibration, distribution free techniques and recognizes explainer variability as a central concern. We argue that progress in UAXAI requires unified evaluation principles that link uncertainty propagation, robustness, and human decision-making, and highlight counterfactual and calibration approaches as promising avenues for aligning interpretability with reliability.
Figures & tables
| Description | no. of papers |
|---|---|
| No uncertainty quantification | 13 |
| Not XAI-related | 13 |
| No explanation component | 5 |
| No access | 1 |
| Total | 32 |
| Year | Paper title | Type(s) of Uncertainty Studied | Uncertainty Handling Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | General Pitfalls of Model-Agnostic Interpretation Methods for Machine Learning Models [ 40 ] | Unclear or unspecified | Narrative |
| 2021 | BayLIME: Bayesian Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations [ 41 ] | Epistemic | Model; Quantitative |
| 2021 | Generating Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations By Implicit Minimisation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainties [ 7 ] | Both | Model; Predictive; Quantitative |
| 2021 | Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modelling Uncertainty in Explainability [ 42 ] | Unclear or unspecified | Model; Quantitative |
| 2021 | Uncertainty Class Activation Map (U-CAM) Using Gradient Certainty Method [ 43 ] | Both | Predictive; Model; Visual; Quantitative |
| 2021 | Uncertainty interpretation of the Machine Learning Survival Model Prediction [ 44 ] | Aleatoric | Predictive; Quantitative |
| Origin | Pipeline stage | Type | Mitigation | Uncertainty mitigation methods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intrinsic data variability | Real-world randomness, measurement error | Aleatoric | Not reducible | – |
| Data sampling | Training, validation, and test set design | Epistemic | Improved sampling; calibration split | Calibration set |
| Model specification | Algorithm, architecture, hyperparameters | Epistemic | Well-calibrated models and post-hoc calibration | Models: Random Forest, XGBoost, neural networks. Calibration: Conformal, Platt, Isotonic |
| Post-model | Post-hoc interpretability methods | Epistemic | Robust and stable UAXAI | UAXAI methods. |
Appendix figures & tables1 asset
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Search string | Section of Paper | Research Area(s) | Refined by | No. of papers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty + explanations | Author keywords | Computer Science | - | 33 |
| Uncertainty + explanations + XAI | Author keywords | Computer Science | - | 1 |
| UAXAI | Author keywords | Computer Science | - | 0 |
| UAXAI | all fields | - | - | 1 |
| Trustworthy + AI | Author keywords | Computer Science | Uncertainty | 27 |
| Trustworthy + AI | Author keywords | Computer Science | Uncertainty and Explanations | 12 |
Explainable Artificial Intelligence
Explainable artificial intelligence develops ways to make AI decisions understandable, testable, and useful to people.
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