Item Price Elasticity is used to quantify the responsiveness of consumer demand to changes in item prices, enabling businesses to create pricing strategies and optimize revenue management. Sectors such as store retail, e-commerce, and consumer goods rely on elasticity information derived from historical sales and pricing data. This elasticity provides an understanding of purchasing behavior across different items, consumer discount sensitivity, and demand elastic departments. This information is particularly valuable for competitive markets and resource-constrained businesses decision making which aims to maximize profitability and market share. Price elasticity also uncovers historical shifts in consumer responsiveness over time. In this paper, we model item-level price elasticity using large-scale transactional datasets, by proposing a novel elasticity estimation framework which has the capability to work in an absence of treatment control setting. We test this framework by using Machine learning based algorithms listed below, including our newly proposed Monodense deep neural network. (1) Monodense-DL network -- Hybrid neural network architecture combining embedding, dense, and Monodense layers (2) DML -- Double machine learning setting using regression models (3) LGBM -- Light Gradient Boosting Model We evaluate our model on multi-category retail data spanning millions of transactions using a back testing framework. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed neural network model within the framework compared to other prevalent ML based methods listed above.
Figures & tables
Fig. 1: Proposed framework
Fig. 2: For simplicity some features are not shown
Fig. 3: Architecture of our proposed DLM
Fig. 4: Model training and validation loss
Deep learning model
LGBM model
Double Machine Learning*
30.90%
35.9%
36.1%
TABLE I: *For double machine learning WMAPE of outcome model is recorded
We propose the Integrable Context-Dependent Demand Network (ICDN), a demand-first neural model for multiproduct retail demand. ICDN learns log-demand as a smooth, context-conditioned function of log-prices, allowing elasticities to be derived exactly from the learned demand surface. Across three retail datasets, the model achieves competitive out-of-sample prediction while producing analytically tractable, and economically regularized own- and cross-price responses.
Carlos Heredia, Daniel Roncel
IAMM Research, Department of Applied Artificial Intelligence DAMM, Carrer del Rossell´o 515, 08025 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
Pricing food products to balance profitability with consumer welfare is a central challenge for retailers. Dynamic pricing is widely used to maximize revenue, yet most pricing models optimize business objectives while overlooking consumer fairness. This paper studies the risk of consumer exploitation under dynamic food pricing in Canada and proposes a methodology that embeds fairness constraints directly into retail sales forecasting. We model total retail trade sales with a log--log Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) specification, in which the coefficient on a product price is a sales elasticity, and pose the pricing problem as maximizing forecast sales subject to price bounds anchored to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We solve this problem with both Linear Programming (LP) and Simulated Annealing (SA), under single-product and multi-product configurations. A key finding is that the fitted nominal elasticities are positive. As a result, an unconstrained sales-maximizer would push every price to its upper bound, and the CPI ceiling is the safeguard that prevents this. Simulated Annealing instead settles on conservative, interior prices that lower consumer cost while still meeting the sales target. We benchmark forecast accuracy against naive, seasonal-naive, ARIMA, and SARIMA baselines, and a CPI-deflated re-specification shows that the positive nominal elasticities are largely an inflation-driven artifact. The result is a transparent, fairness-aware pricing framework.
Sujay Uday Rittikar
Department of Applied Computer Science The University of Winnipeg Winnipeg, MB, Canada
This paper integrates deep neural networks (DNNs) into structural models to increase flexibility and capture rich heterogeneity while preserving interpretability. Economic (or scientific or domain-restricted) structure and machine learning are complements in empirical modeling, not substitutes: DNNs provide the capacity to learn complex, nonlinear heterogeneity, while the structure ensures the estimates remain interpretable and suitable for decision-making and policy analysis. We start with a standard parametric structural model and then enrich its parameters into fully flexible functions, which are estimated using a DNN with the model structure built in. We illustrate our framework with an application to demand estimation in consumer choice. We show that by enriching a demand model we can capture rich heterogeneity exploit it to create personalized pricing. Optimization is not possible without structure, but cannot be heterogeneous without machine learning. The same lessons apply to precision dosing, adaptive treatment, educational testing, and other targeting settings. We provide theoretical justification for our proposed methodology: nonasymptotic bounds and a novel and general influence function for feasible inference via double machine learning, so that the latter can be easily applied in numerous new contexts. These results may be of interest in other contexts as they generalize prior work.
Max H. Farrell, Tengyuan Liang, Sanjog Misra
Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara · Booth School of Business, University of Chicago