Toward Artificial Intelligence Enabled Earth System Coupling

Recent advances in AI-driven weather and climate modeling have improved forecast skill while reducing computational cost. However, existing data-driven approaches are limited in their ability to model coupled Earth system dynamics, which is required for extending predictability beyond the ~2-week horizon. To address this, we introduce NIVA, a multimodal foundation model designed to learn unified representations across Earth system components. While the full framework targets atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interactions, we focus here on a two-modality setting (ocean and atmosphere) as a controlled proof of concept to evaluate whether foundation models can learn coupled dynamics. Trained on large-scale Earth system simulations, NIVA learns physically meaningful cross-modal structure, providing a foundation for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. As initial validation, we show that NIVA captures key modes of climate variability through accurate prediction of major climate indices.

AI foundation models pretrained on weather and climate data are increasingly fine-tuned to Earth science tasks well beyond weather forecasting. Their development and adoption are outpacing the scientific community's ability to evaluate them. These models are judged almost entirely by benchmark skill metrics, which measure how closely a forecast reproduces a reference product but not whether a model represents the physical processes governing the system it predicts. Forecast skill and physical reliability are therefore distinct properties. The distinction is most consequential under the nonstationary conditions of a changing climate for which these models were never trained. We identify five priorities for the physical evaluation of AI models in Earth science from task-specific emulators to foundation models, spanning training data, fine-tuning, behavioral testing, mechanistic interpretability, and output validation. We recommend three activities for the coming decade: 1) open AI-ready evaluation datasets, 2) a shared reporting standard for physics-based evaluation, and 3) a dedicated research program on the safety of these models.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved breakthroughs comparable to traditional numerical models in data-driven weather forecasting, yet it remains essentially statistical fitting and struggles to uncover the physical causal mechanisms of the atmosphere. Physics-oriented mechanism research still heavily relies on domain knowledge and cumbersome engineering operations of human scientists, becoming a bottleneck restricting the efficiency of Earth system science exploration. Here, we propose TianJi - the first "AI meteorologist" system capable of autonomously driving complex numerical models to verify physical mechanisms. Powered by a large language model-driven multi-agent architecture, TianJi can autonomously conduct literature research and generate scientific hypotheses. We further decouple scientific research into cognitive planning and engineering execution: the meta-planner interprets hypotheses and devises experimental roadmaps, while a cohort of specialized worker agents collaboratively complete data preparation, model configuration, and multi-dimensional result analysis. In two classic atmospheric dynamic scenarios (squall-line cold pools and typhoon track deflections), TianJi accomplishes expert-level end-to-end experimental operations with zero human intervention, compressing the research cycle to a few hours. It also delivers detailed result analyses and autonomously judges and explains the validity of the hypotheses from outputs. TianJi reveals that the role of AI in Earth system science is transitioning from a "black-box predictor" to an "interpretable scientific collaborator", offering a new paradigm for high-throughput exploration of scientific mechanisms.