Quantifying Trust: Financial Risk Management for Trustworthy AI Agents
Organizations: Microsoft Research · Columbia University · Google DeepMind · Stanford University ·
Abstract
Prior work on trustworthy AI emphasizes model-internal properties such as bias mitigation, adversarial robustness, and interpretability. As AI systems evolve into autonomous agents deployed in open environments and increasingly connected to payments or assets, the operational meaning of trust shifts to end-to-end outcomes: whether an agent completes tasks, follows user intent, and avoids failures that cause material or psychological harm. These risks are fundamentally product-level and cannot be eliminated by technical safeguards alone because agent behavior is inherently stochastic. To address this gap between model-level reliability and user-facing assurance, we propose a complementary framework based on risk management. Drawing inspiration from financial underwriting, we introduce the Agentic Risk Standard (ARS), a payment settlement standard for AI-mediated transactions. ARS integrates risk assessment, underwriting, and compensation into a single transaction framework that protects users when interacting with agents. Under ARS, users receive predefined and contractually enforceable compensation in cases of execution failure, misalignment, or unintended outcomes. This shifts trust from an implicit expectation about model behavior to an explicit, measurable, and enforceable product guarantee. We also present a simulation study analyzing the social benefits of applying ARS to agentic transactions. ARS's implementation can be found at https://github.com/t54-labs/AgenticRiskStandard.
Figures & tables
| Industry / Context | Service Provider | Primary Risk | Risk Protection Mechanism | Who Bears Residual Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | Contractor | Project failure, delay, quality defects | Performance bond | Insurer / surety provider |
| Professional services | Doctor, lawyer, accountant | Professional error, malpractice | Liability insurance | Insurance provider |
| E-commerce platforms | Online seller | Non-delivery, poor service | Escrow payment | Platform escrow account |
| Government procurement | Contractor | Contract non-performance | Bid bond / performance bond | Insurance / surety |
| Financial markets | Traders / brokers | Default and market volatility | Margin requirements + clearinghouse | Clearinghouse |
| DeFi / crypto lending | Borrower | Loan default | Collateralization | Smart contract protocol |
| Action | Sender | Required fields | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SubmitRequest | Requestor | {job_id, task_spec, fee_terms, principal_terms?} | Creates job; enters REQUEST |
| AcceptRequest ; RejectRequest | Business agent | {job_id, decision, reason?} | Accept NEGOTIATION ; reject CANCELLED |
| ProposeAgreement | Either party | {job_id, agreement_draft} | Updates draft terms |
| SignAgreement | Requestor / Business agent | {job_id, agreement_hash} | Both signatures bind ; enter TRANSACTION |
| CancelJob | Either party | {job_id, agreement_hash, reason, signature} | Transitions to CANCELLED if permitted by |
| Action | Sender | Required fields | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| LockFeeEscrow | Requestor | {job_id, agreement_hash, lock_ref, signature} | Locks service fee in escrow |
| SubmitDeliverable | Business agent | {job_id, agreement_hash, deliverable_ref, signature} | Emits delivery signal; enables evaluation |
| SettleFeeEscrow | Settlement layer | {job_id, agreement_hash, release/refund, settlement_ref} | Releases fee to business agent or refunds requestor |
| Action | Sender | Required fields | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| RequestUW | Business agent | {job_id, agreement_hash, coverage_request} | Initiates underwriting review |
| UWDecision | Underwriter | {job_id, agreement_hash, approve/reject, premium, collateral_required?} | Opens underwriting path or enables override/cancellation |
| PayPremium | Requestor (human) | {job_id, agreement_hash, premium, premium_ref, signature} | Adopts underwriting coverage |
| LockCollateral ; RefuseCollateral | Business agent | {job_id, agreement_hash, amount?, collateral_ref?, signature} | Locks collateral or escalates to override |
| OverrideDecision | Human authority | {job_id, agreement_hash, proceed/cancel, signature} | Explicitly accepts full pre-execution risk or terminates |
| ApproveRelease | Requestor-side signer | {job_id, agreement_hash, signature} | Contributes requestor-side approval for principal release |
| Action | Sender | Required fields | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| EvaluateOutcome | Evaluator/arbiter | {job_id, agreement_hash, pass/fail, trigger?, evidence_ref?} | Produces auditable outcome under |
| SettleCollateral | Settlement layer | {job_id, agreement_hash, slash/unlock, amount, settlement_ref} | Applies collateral policy under |
| FileClaim | Requestor | {job_id, agreement_hash, trigger, claimed_loss, evidence_ref} | Requests reimbursement under coverage terms |
| PayClaim | Underwriter (or payout vault) | {job_id, agreement_hash, payout, payout_ref, signature?} | Pays reimbursement up to coverage limit |
| State | Enabled action | Actor | Next state |
|---|---|---|---|
| FEE_AWAIT_LOCK | LockFeeEscrow | Requestor | FEE_ESCROW_LOCKED |
| FEE_ESCROW_LOCKED | SubmitDeliverable | Business agent | FEE_DELIVERED |
| FEE_DELIVERED | (no fee-track action; enables evaluation) | – | EVALUATION (phase transition) |
| State | Enabled action | Actor | Next state |
|---|---|---|---|
| UW_AWAIT_REQUEST | RequestUW | Business agent | UW_REVIEW |
| UW_REVIEW | UWDecision | Underwriter | approve PREMIUM_PENDING (if premium required) or COLLATERAL_REQUESTED ; reject OVERRIDE_PENDING (if allowed) else CANCELLED |
| PREMIUM_PENDING | PayPremium | Human requestor | COLLATERAL_REQUESTED |
| COLLATERAL_REQUESTED | LockCollateral ; RefuseCollateral | Business agent | lock APPROVAL_PENDING ; refuse OVERRIDE_PENDING |
| OVERRIDE_PENDING | OverrideDecision | Human authority | proceed APPROVAL_PENDING ; cancel CANCELLED |
| APPROVAL_PENDING | ApproveRelease | Requestor-side signer(s) | if then RELEASABLE |
AI Risk Management
AI risk management studies how to identify, assess, reduce, and monitor harms from AI across development, deployment, and wider social systems.
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