Empowering Power Outage Prediction with Spatially Aware Hybrid Graph Neural Networks and Contrastive Learning

The occurrence of large-scale power outages induced by natural disasters has been on the rise in a changing climate. Such power outages often last extended durations, causing substantial financial losses and socioeconomic impacts to customers. Accurate estimation of outage duration is thus critical for enhancing the resilience of energy infrastructure under severe weather. We formulate such a task as a machine learning (ML) problem with focus on unique real-world challenges: high-order spatial dependency in the data, a moderate number of large-scale outage events, heterogeneous types of such events, and different impacts in a region within each event. To address these challenges, we develop a Bimodal Gated Graph Attention Network (BiGGAT), a graph-based neural network model, that integrates a Graph Attention Network (GAT) with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to capture the complex spatial characteristics. We evaluate the approach in a setting of inductive learning, using large-scale power outage data from six major hurricanes in the Southeastern United States. Experimental results demonstrate that BiGGAT achieves a superior performance compared to benchmark models.

Power outage prediction models are increasingly used in assessments of climate-driven infrastructure risk, yet current evaluation practices obscure whether these models generalize to the novel conditions such applications require. We identify three common methodological choices in power outage prediction models that influence their ability to generalize across spatial, temporal, and event-based settings. We compare the predictive performance impacts of different methodological decisions using publicly available data for the U.S. East Coast from 2018 to 2023 and feature sets derived from weather reanalysis and land-cover data, and embeddings from a GeoAI foundation model (Prithvi WxC). Specifically, we assess model performance under multiple test selection strategies, including unfiltered random splits, leave-one-state-out, and leave-one-event-out designs, which increasingly approximate real-world deployment conditions. While random train-test splits yield strong performance, we show that these results are inflated by spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Under spatial and temporal holdout experiments, predictive accuracy degrades substantially, with models often failing to outperform a simple null baseline. Incorporating GeoAI foundation model embeddings yields limited and inconsistent improvements, primarily for spatial generalization, and does not resolve poor event-level transferability. These findings suggest that, given current data availability and evaluation practices, publicly trained outage prediction models offer limited and uncertain operational value. Progress will likely require improved data coverage, more realistic evaluation protocols, and a shift in focus from marginal modeling advances toward addressing structural data constraints.

Power-outage planning requires scenarios before an event occurs. These scenarios must represent uncertainty in magnitude, timing, and duration while preserving temporal dependence. However, severe events are rare, and data from any single region contain few examples of extreme outage and restoration patterns. To address this challenge, we introduce OutageDiT, a foundation model for generating seven-day outage trajectories at quarter-hour resolution, trained on outage and weather records across the United States. Specifically, a condition encoder processes the historical context and known future covariates once per forecast, and a shallow flow decoder reuses the resulting horizon-aligned states to generate complete trajectories. The resulting samples support point forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and conditional event simulation within one deep generative model. Across outage forecasting benchmarks, OutageDiT improves forecast accuracy and scenario quality over strong baselines and supports zero-shot transfer to held-out regions. Together, these results position conditional outage simulation as a bridge from outage forecasting to operational planning under uncertainty.