Lecture notes on Machine Learning applications for global fits
Authors: Jorge Alda
Organizations: Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Galileo Galilei”, Università degli Studi di Padova and INFN Sezione Padova, via Marzolo 8 35129 Padova, Italy. · Centro de Astropartículas y Física de Altas Energías (CAPA), Pedro Cerbuna 12 50009 Zaragoza, Spain.
These lecture notes provide a comprehensive framework for performing global statistical fits in high-energy physics using modern Machine Learning (ML) surrogates. We begin by reviewing the statistical foundations of model building, including the likelihood function, Wilks' theorem, and profile likelihoods. Recognizing that the computational cost of evaluating model predictions often renders traditional minimization prohibitive, we introduce Boosted Decision Trees to approximate the log-likelihood function. The notes detail a robust ML workflow including efficient generation of training data with active learning and Gaussian processes, hyperparameter optimization, model compilation for speed-up, and interpretability through SHAP values to decode the influence of model parameters and interactions between parameters. We further discuss posterior distribution sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These techniques are finally applied to the B±→K±ννˉ anomaly at Belle II, demonstrating how a two-stage ML model can efficiently explore the parameter space of Axion-Like Particles (ALPs) while satisfying stringent experimental constraints on decay lengths and flavor-violating couplings.
Global fits in high energy physics and cosmology often face the challenge of exploring high-dimensional parameter spaces with computationally expensive or topologically complex likelihood functions. In this work, we present a Machine Learning framework designed to emulate complex, often non-Gaussian likelihood landscapes using gradient-boosted regression trees (XGBoost). We discuss the advantages of the Machine Learning approach in terms of computational efficiency and the resolution of confidence regions, particularly in scenarios with complex correlations or "curved" degeneracies. We validate this methodology by applying it to a recent analysis on flavour anomalies in semileptonic B meson decays and discussing the adaptability of this framework to other phenomenological systems, such as axion-like particles or cosmology global fits. Finally, we utilise SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) values to provide a transparent analysis of feature importance, ensuring that the Machine Learning predictions remain physically interpretable and consistent with the underlying physics.
The workflow from particle collision to physics analysis passes through a series of reconstruction steps that are traditionally modular and disconnected, with no shared representation linking low-level detector data to high-level analysis tasks. We show that casting event reconstruction as a machine learning problem naturally produces such a shared representation. We repurpose a machine learning model trained for particle-flow reconstruction (MLPF) to perform three distinct analysis tasks: jet flavor identification, jet energy regression, and missing momentum regression. By appending the per-particle latent representations learned during reconstruction as additional input features, we substantially improve over baselines that use kinematic features alone. We further demonstrate that a single linear layer trained using only the latent representations achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art baseline architectures, and outperforms the baseline for missing momentum regression with approximately 35 times fewer parameters. These results demonstrate that the latent representations learned during reconstruction encode essential physics information needed for downstream analysis, establishing MLPF as a foundation model and offering a concrete step toward an end-to-end pipeline from detector data to physics analysis.
In HEP data analyses, finding an adequate function to model binned data has largely relied on a manual process: guess a functional form by intuition, fit, examine, then repeat until successful. We show that this iterative process can be automated by a machine using symbolic regression, which performs a data-driven search over function space without requiring prior knowledge of what an adequate function should look like. We present the SymbolFit package, which pairs symbolic regression with uncertainty modeling to target HEP analysis use cases, and demonstrate it on the CMS and ATLAS Run 2 dijet spectra: 560 independent seeded runs across seven simple fit configurations generated over 1000 functions fitting the spectra with χ2/NDF≈1, and 111 of the runs rediscovered the very dijet and UA2 functions used in published dijet searches.