A Nonparametric Adaptive EWMA Control Chart for Binary Monitoring of Multiple Stream Processes

Generative agents have proven to be powerful assistants in a wide variety of contexts. Given this success, users are now deploying agents with minimal restrictions in open ended, multi-agent environments. Current methods for monitoring the dynamics of open-ended multi-agent systems are limited to qualitative inspection. In this paper, we extend the process-theoretic notion of adaptive control charts to multi-agent systems to enable automated monitoring. Using simulation, we demonstrate that adaptive control charts are necessary for monitoring multi-agent systems that can learn from their environment. We further demonstrate, both empirically and theoretically, that adaptive control charts are susceptible to adversarial agents that defect sufficiently slowly. These results illustrate a fundamental tradeoff in multi-agent system control: either agents in a system cannot learn or the system is susceptible to adversaries.

Detecting a change in a multivariate series answers only the first of two questions; the operational question is which coordinates changed. Existing answers are incomplete. Block-level procedures certify predefined groups of coordinates under an additive union bound, high-dimensional variable-selection methods return interpretable rankings without error guarantees, and the post-detection inference literature controls error along the time axis rather than across coordinates. We propose ARM (Attribution by Rank Maxima), a wrapper that accepts a changepoint located by an arbitrary detector and returns the set of coordinates certified to have changed, each carrying a location or scale type label. ARM scores each coordinate by a max-over-splits rank statistic. Because this statistic dominates the corresponding statistic at the estimated split, the resulting certificate is invariant to the manner, and to the accuracy, of the changepoint estimate. Three finite-sample guarantees follow from within-coordinate ranks alone: per-coordinate validity under any detector; exact family-wise error control through a Westfall--Young joint permutation that preserves cross-coordinate dependence, with a fully distribution-free Holm fallback; and false discovery rate control under arbitrary coordinate dependence in high dimensions through Benjamini--Yekutieli and e-BH. In simulations, naive per-coordinate testing at the estimated changepoint inflates its family-wise error beyond $0.66$ as the dimension grows, whereas ARM maintains the nominal level while retaining validity under heavy tails, power in high dimensions, and accurate type labels. On five financial series surrounding the 2008 collapse, ARM attributes a scale change to every asset class and excludes injected control coordinates.

Continuous monitoring of generative AI systems requires detecting distribution shifts in the unstructured data they ingest and generate. Existing monitoring methods typically control false alarms by requiring the discrepancy measure used to detect shifts to be pre-specified. However, for unstructured data, pre-specification creates a sensitivity--breadth trade-off: a narrowly defined measure is sensitive to the anticipated shift but may miss unexpected changes, whereas a broadly defined measure may detect a wider range of shifts but with reduced sensitivity. Although adaptively hypothesizing the shift direction can overcome this limitation, such data-dependent adaptation generally invalidates conventional false-alarm guarantees. We reconcile adaptivity with statistical validity through testing-by-betting, reframing sequential changepoint detection as a betting game in which the bettor continually updates its hypothesized shift direction, or witness function, as new observations arrive. We introduce asymptotic e-detectors, which approximate the pre-change distribution using a calibration set of size $m$, and prove that they asymptotically control the average run length to a false alarm as $m$ increases. Empirically, calibration sets as small as $m=30$ provide effective control. We then develop adaptive monitoring strategies ranging from black-box bettors that learn from embeddings to interpretable bettors based on LLM-proposed concepts. Across three real-world datasets, including data from a clinical AI scribe deployment, adaptive monitors detect shifts faster than fixed monitors at the same false-alarm level. Further, when the true shifts are sparse and interpretable, LLM-concept monitors provide the fastest and most interpretable detection, while also guiding root-cause diagnosis for complex shifts.