Awakening Dormant Experts:Counterfactual Routing to Mitigate MoE Hallucinations

Activation patching can identify a mixture-of-experts (MoE) block whose clean output restores a corrupted factual prediction. However, because the block output combines contributions from multiple routed experts, block-level rescue does not establish whether the recovery localizes to an individual expert or depends on the routed expert set. We study this question on single-token COUNTERFACT contrasts by corrupting subject-token embeddings, restoring clean block outputs, and then restoring clean-minus-noised expert updates under fixed routing. In Qwen3-30B-A3B-Base, a discovery sweep selects layer 44, and held-out analysis identifies L44E069 as a recurrent routed contributor with positive specificity over same-layer active experts. Its effect is fact-matched and improves true-token probability and rank, which explains part of the layer rescue. In Mixtral-8x7B-v0.1, the selected recurrent singleton is not specific; matched-size controls instead show specificity of the clean-routed top-2 set. These findings show that successful MoE-block restoration does not necessarily imply localization to a single expert.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models route each token to a small subset of experts, but whether the routes selected by a trained top-$k$ router are good ones is rarely evaluated directly. Holding the model fixed, we compare each standard route against sampled equal-compute alternatives for the same token and score each by the next-token probability it assigns to the realized token in a verified reasoning trajectory. The result is sharply token-conditional: the standard router is well-aligned with route utility on confident tokens but uninformative on the fragile tokens that drive hard reasoning, where lower-loss equal-compute routes consistently exist inside the frozen model but are not selected. The same pattern holds across Qwen3-30B-A3B, GPT-OSS-20B, DeepSeek-V2-Lite, and OLMoE-1B-7B, and follows structurally from how standard top-$k$ training evaluates routing decisions: the language modeling loss scores only the executed route, and load balancing depends only on aggregate routing statistics. A minimal router-only update to the final-layer router, leaving every expert and every other router frozen, is sufficient to shift pass@K on AIME 2024+2025 and HMMT 2025 for both Qwen3-30B-A3B and GPT-OSS-20B, suggesting that at least part of the failure reflects router-reachable misallocation rather than expert capacity alone.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have gained popularity as a means of scaling the capacity of large language models (LLMs) while maintaining sparse activations and reduced per-token compute. However, in memory-constrained inference settings, expert weights must be offloaded to CPU, creating a performance bottleneck from CPU-GPU transfers during decoding. We propose an expert prefetching scheme that leverages currently computed internal model representations to speculate future experts, enabling memory transfers to overlap with computation. Across multiple MoE architectures, we demonstrate that future experts can be reliably predicted by these internal representations. We also demonstrate that executing speculated experts generally maintains downstream task accuracy, thus preserving more effective compute-memory overlap by eliminating the need to re-fetch true router-selected experts. Integrated into an optimized inference engine, our approach achieves up to 14% reduction in time per output token (TPOT) over on-demand loading of experts from CPU memory. For MoEs where speculative execution alone yields suboptimal accuracy, we further examine lightweight estimators that improve expert prediction hit rates, thereby reducing performance degradation. Our code is released in open-source at https://github.com/axonn-ai/yalis/tree/offload_prefetch.