xFODE: An Explainable Fuzzy Additive ODE Framework for System Identification
Authors: Ertugrul Kececi, Tufan Kumbasar
Organizations: AI and Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Istanbul, Türkiye
Abstract
Recent advances in Deep Learning (DL) have strengthened data-driven System Identification (SysID), with Neural and Fuzzy Ordinary Differential Equation (NODE/FODE) models achieving high accuracy in nonlinear dynamic modeling. Yet, system states in these frameworks are often reconstructed without clear physical meaning, and input contributions to the state derivatives remain difficult to interpret. To address these limitations, we propose Explainable FODE (xFODE), an interpretable SysID framework with integrated DL-based training. In xFODE, we define states in an incremental form to provide them with physical meanings. We employ fuzzy additive models to approximate the state derivative, thereby enhancing interpretability per input. To provide further interpretability, Partitioning Strategies (PSs) are developed, enabling the training of fuzzy additive models with explainability. By structuring the antecedent space during training so that only two consecutive rules are activated for any given input, PSs not only yield lower complexity for local inference but also enhance the interpretability of the antecedent space. To train xFODE, we present a DL framework with parameterized membership function learning that supports end-to-end optimization. Across benchmark SysID datasets, xFODE matches the accuracy of NODE, FODE, and NLARX models while providing interpretable insights.
Recent advances in Deep Learning (DL) have boosted data-driven System Identification (SysID), but reliable use requires Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) alongside accurate predictions. Although UQ-capable models such as Fuzzy ODE (FODE) can produce Prediction Intervals (PIs), they offer limited interpretability. We introduce Explainable Type-2 Fuzzy Additive ODEs for UQ (xFODE+), an interpretable SysID model which produces PIs alongside point predictions while retaining physically meaningful incremental states. xFODE+ implements each fuzzy additive model with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2-FLSs) and constraints membership functions to the activation of two neighboring rules, limiting overlap and keeping inference locally transparent. The type-reduced sets produced by the IT2-FLSs are aggregated to construct the state update together with the PIs. The model is trained in a DL framework via a composite loss that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy and PI quality. Results on benchmark SysID datasets show that xFODE+ matches FODE in PI quality and achieves comparable accuracy, while providing interpretability.
Nonlinear system identification must balance physical interpretability with model flexibility. Classical methods yield structured, control-relevant models but rely on rigid parametric forms that often miss complex nonlinearities, whereas Neural ODEs are expressive yet largely black-box. Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) sit between these extremes, but inverse PINNs typically assume a known governing equation with fixed coefficients, leading to identifiability failures when the true dynamics are unknown or state-dependent. We propose \textbf{SOLIS}, which models unknown dynamics via a \emph{state-conditioned second-order surrogate model} and recasts identification as learning a Quasi-Linear Parameter-Varying (Quasi-LPV) representation, recovering interpretable natural frequency, damping, and gain without presupposing a global equation. SOLIS decouples trajectory reconstruction from parameter estimation and stabilizes training with a cyclic curriculum and \textbf{Local Physics Hints} windowed ridge-regression anchors that mitigate optimization collapse. Experiments on benchmarks show accurate parameter-manifold recovery and coherent physical rollouts from sparse data, including regimes where standard inverse methods fail.
Spatiotemporal systems comprise a collection of spatially distributed yet interdependent entities each generating unique dynamic signals. Highly sophisticated methods have been proposed in recent years delivering state-of-the-art (SOTA) forecasts but few have focused on interpretability. To address this, we propose the Future Decomposition Network (FDN), a novel forecast model capable of (a) providing interpretable predictions through classification (b) revealing latent activity patterns in the target time-series and (c) delivering forecasts competitive with SOTA methods at a fraction of their memory and runtime cost. We conduct comprehensive analyses on FDN for multiple datasets from hydrologic, traffic, and energy systems, demonstrating its improved accuracy and interpretability.