Uncertainty estimation is a promising approach to detect hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). Recent approaches commonly depend on model internal states to estimate uncertainty. However, they suffer from strict assumptions on how hidden states should evolve across layers, and from information loss by solely focusing on last or mean tokens. To address these issues, we present Sequential Internal Variance Representation (SIVR), a supervised hallucination detection framework that leverages token-wise, layer-wise features derived from hidden states. SIVR adopts a more basic assumption that uncertainty manifests in the degree of dispersion or variance of internal representations across layers, rather than relying on specific assumptions, which makes the method model and task agnostic. It additionally aggregates the full sequence of per-token variance features, learning temporal patterns indicative of factual errors and thereby preventing information loss. Experimental results demonstrate SIVR consistently outperforms strong baselines. Most importantly, SIVR enjoys stronger generalisation and avoids relying on large training sets, highlighting the potential for practical deployment. Our code repository is available online at https://github.com/ponhvoan/internal-variance.
We propose a lightweight and single-pass uncertainty quantification method for detecting hallucinations in Large Language Models. The method uses attention matrices to estimate uncertainty without requiring repeated sampling or external models. Specifically, we measure the Kullback-Leibler divergence between each attention head's distribution and a uniform reference distribution, and use these features in a logistic regression probe. Across multiple datasets, task types, and model families, attention divergence is highly predictive of answer correctness and performs competitively with existing uncertainty estimation methods. We find that this signal is concentrated in middle layers and on factual tokens such as named entities and numbers, suggesting that attention dynamics provides an efficient and interpretable white-box signal of model uncertainty.
Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for retrieving knowledge through seamless, human-like interactions. Despite their advanced text generation capabilities, LLMs exhibit hallucination tendencies, where they generate factually incorrect statements and fabricate knowledge, undermining their reliability and trustworthiness. Multiple studies have explored methods to evaluate LLM uncertainty and detect hallucinations. However, existing approaches are often probabilistic and computationally expensive, limiting their practical applicability. In this paper, we introduce diversion decoding, a novel method for developing an LLM uncertainty heuristic by actively challenging model-generated responses during the decoding phase. Through diversion decoding, we extract features that capture the LLM's resistance to produce alternative answers and utilize these features to train a machine-learning model to develop a heuristic measure of the LLM's uncertainty. Our experimental results demonstrate that diversion decoding outperforms existing methods with significantly lower computational complexity, making it an efficient and robust solution for evaluating hallucination detection.
Basel Abdeen, S M Tahmid Siddiqui, Meah Tahmeed Ahmed +4
Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit hallucinations, presenting a major barrier to reliability in complex reasoning tasks. While traditional detection methods rely on output-based confidence metrics, these logits are often miscalibrated by modern alignment techniques. In this paper, we investigate the temporal volatility of internal attention mechanisms as an alternative diagnostic signal for hallucination that does not depend on output calibration. By introducing an unsupervised metric for attention dispersion, we show that epistemic uncertainty leaves a measurable trace within intermediate layers, where spikes in attention entropy are associated with reasoning breakdowns. We evaluate our approach on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH-500) using the Qwen2.5 model family (1.5B and 3B parameters), finding statistically significant AUC improvements of up to +0.076 over output-based baselines across all tested conditions. These findings suggest that attention dispersion is a promising complement to traditional hallucination detection methods, requiring further investigation across broader model families and task domains.