SynopticBench: Evaluating Vision-Language Models on Generating Weather Forecast Discussions of the Future

Large language models (LLMs) hallucinate numerical values when generating high-stakes meteorological text, posing risks for weather communication. We present AFDBench, an AI meteorologist that generates professional Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) by reasoning through structured AI weather forecast data from Google's WeatherNext 2. We introduce AFDBench, the first benchmark for evaluating generative meteorological reasoning, comprising 7,732 expert written discussions from 13 National Weather Service (NWS) offices paired with real AI weather forecast inputs, and three complementary metrics: Met-Align (numerical accuracy), Style-Align (professional dialect adherence), and Input-Grounding (fidelity to source weather data). Zero-shot evaluations reveal that open-source LLMs achieve low Style-Align (~0.33) and moderate Input-Grounding (~0.88), failing to write in the professional NWS register or faithfully use their input data. We apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with domain-specific rewards targeting temperature accuracy, synoptic correctness, and format compliance. On 1,033 held-out samples from two unseen NWS offices, GRPO nearly doubles Style-Align from 0.318 to 0.619 and improves Input-Grounding from 0.881 to 0.940, demonstrating that reinforcement learning teaches a 7B-parameter model to write like a professional meteorologist and faithfully interpret AI weather data.

Accurate weather forecast reporting enables individuals and communities to better plan daily activities and agricultural operations. However, the current reporting process primarily relies on manual analysis of multi-source data, which leads to information overload and reduced efficiency. With the development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), leveraging data-driven models to analyze and generate reports in the weather forecasting domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we propose the Weather Forecasting Report (WFR) task and construct the first instruction-tuning dataset for this task, named~\DatasetNameL, which covers 31 cities in America and 8 weather aspects. Based on this corpus, we develop the first model, \ModelNameL, specialized in generating weather forecast reports. Evaluation across multiple metrics on our dataset shows that \ModelNameL~ consistently outperforms leading closed-source MLLMs, particularly on structurally complex weather aspects. We further analyze its performance across diverse geographic regions and weather aspects. \ModelNameL~ demonstrates strong transferability across different regions, highlighting its zero-shot generalization capability. \ModelNameL~offers valuable insight for developing MLLMs specialized in weather report generation. .

Existing vision-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in reasoning-based segmentation. However, current benchmarks are primarily constructed from high-quality images captured under idealized conditions. This raises a critical question: when visual cues are severely degraded by adverse weather conditions such as rain, snow, or fog, can VLMs sustain reliable reasoning segmentation capabilities? In response to this challenge, we introduce WeatherReasonSeg, a benchmark designed to evaluate VLM performance in reasoning-based segmentation under adverse weather conditions. It consists of two complementary components. First, we construct a controllable reasoning dataset by applying synthetic weather with varying severity levels to existing segmentation datasets, enabling fine-grained robustness analysis. Second, to capture real-world complexity, we curate a real-world adverse-weather reasoning segmentation dataset with semantically consistent queries generated via mask-guided LLM prompting. We further broaden the evaluation scope across five reasoning dimensions, including functionality, application scenarios, structural attributes, interactions, and requirement matching. Extensive experiments across diverse VLMs reveal two key findings: (1) VLM performance degrades monotonically with increasing weather severity, and (2) different weather types induce distinct vulnerability patterns. We hope WeatherReasonSeg will serve as a foundation for advancing robust, weather-aware reasoning.