The Provenance Gap in Clinical AI: Evidence-Traceable Temporal Knowledge Graphs for Rare Disease Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for clinical question answering (QA). Current systems can attach citations to their answers, but these often point to broad texts, leaving time-pressed clinicians unable to verify them efficiently. An alternative is to ensure that responses are verifiable by construction: providing fine-grained verbatim quotes from reference material that substantiate claims, so users can verify an answer without opening other documents. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of current models to perform this task end-to-end: from providing citations for every factual claim, to producing verbatim quotes, to ensuring that those quotes fully substantiate the claims. To do so, we build a standardized harness over four clinical practice guidelines and evaluate twelve LLMs on 222 synthetic clinical questions, measuring each of these stages separately. We find that most models can attach verbatim quotes to over 90% of their claims from prompting alone, apart from some lightweight models such as claude-haiku-4.5. Yet these quotes often fail to substantiate every detail of the claims they accompany. For instance, claude-opus-5 produces verbatim quotes for 98.0% of its claims, but fully substantiates only 37.1%. Our work provides insights into the current capability gap of LLMs in building verifiable clinical QA systems, along with artifacts for future research.

Assessing whether an article supports an assertion is essential for hallucination detection and claim verification. While large language models (LLMs) have the potential to automate this task, achieving strong performance requires frontier models such as GPT-5 that are prohibitively expensive to deploy at scale. To efficiently perform biomedical evidence attribution, we present Med-V1, a family of small language models with only three billion parameters. Trained on high-quality synthetic data newly developed in this study, Med-V1 substantially outperforms (+27.0% to +71.3%) its base models on five biomedical benchmarks unified into a verification format. Despite its smaller size, Med-V1 performs comparably to frontier LLMs such as GPT-5, along with high-quality explanations for its predictions. We use Med-V1 to conduct a first-of-its-kind use case study that quantifies hallucinations in LLM-generated answers under different citation instructions. Results show that the format instruction strongly affects citation validity and hallucination, with GPT-5 generating more claims but exhibiting hallucination rates similar to GPT-4o. Additionally, we present a second use case showing that Med-V1 can automatically identify high-stakes evidence misattributions in clinical practice guidelines, revealing potentially negative public health impacts that are otherwise challenging to identify at scale. Overall, Med-V1 provides an efficient and accurate lightweight alternative to frontier LLMs for practical, real-world biomedical evidence attribution. Med-V1 is available at https://github.com/NLM-DIR/Med-V1.

Retrieval-augmented generation evaluation checks whether model claims are factually grounded in retrieved documents. It does not check whether retrieved evidence is attributed to the correct entity. A clinical RAG response can pass every automated check (zero hallucinations, near-perfect faithfulness, real citations) while presenting drug Y's clinical evidence as evidence about queried drug X. We term this deceptive grounding (DG): a failure invisible to faithfulness, hallucination, and citation checks because every claim is sourced from a real document, about the wrong entity. Using a controlled factorial benchmark across 13 models, we find DG rates spanning 8-87% at peak adversarial conditions. Medical and biomedical fine-tuned models reach up to 86.7%; domain specialization amplifies the failure rather than mitigating it. A controlled ablation identifies the mechanism: removing entity-specific clinical evidence from retrieved documents eliminates entity-attribution failure entirely, shifting all failures to confabulation. The two failure modes respond to the same trigger, taking different paths. Production measurement across 740 drug-disease pairs finds 7.8% overall DG in a deployed RAG system, rising to 13.6% for recently approved drugs. Entity-attribution verification (checking that cited evidence applies to the queried entity) detects DG at 97.0% precision and 98.7% DG recall (IPW-adjusted human gold standard); no existing framework implements it.