How much data is enough to make a scientific discovery? As biomedical datasets scale to millions of samples and AI models grow in capacity, progress increasingly depends on predicting when additional data will substantially improve performance. In practice, model development often relies on empirical scaling curves measured across architectures, modalities, and dataset sizes, with limited theoretical guidance on when performance should improve, saturate, or exhibit cross-over behavior. We propose a scaling-law framework for cross-modal discoverability based on spectral structure of data covariance operators, task-aligned signal projections, and learned representations. Many performance metrics, including AUC, can be expressed in terms of cumulative signal-to-noise energy accumulated across identifiable spectral modes of an encoder and cross-modal operator. Under mild assumptions, this accumulation follows a zeta-like scaling law governed by power-law decay of covariance spectra and aligned signal energy, leading naturally to the appearance of the Riemann zeta function. Representation learning methods such as sparse models, low-rank embeddings, and multimodal contrastive objectives improve sample efficiency by concentrating useful signal into earlier stable modes, effectively steepening spectral decay and shifting scaling curves. The framework predicts cross-over regimes in which simpler models perform best at small sample sizes, while higher-capacity or multimodal encoders outperform them once sufficient data stabilizes additional degrees of freedom. Applications include multimodal disease classification, imaging genetics, functional MRI, and topological data analysis. The resulting zeta law provides a principled way to anticipate when scaling data, improving representations, or adding modalities is most likely to accelerate discovery.
Deep vision models degrade sharply in low-data regimes, particularly in medical imaging where labeled samples are scarce. We show this arises not merely from overfitting but from a geometric failure: finite-sample noise corrupts the embedding covariance, collapsing the eigengap and limiting the number of recoverable signal-bearing modes. We develop a spectral theory of finite-sample representation learning that quantifies the recoverable dimension K(N), the number of eigenmodes that can be stably estimated from N samples. Using perturbation theory and concentration bounds, we show that only modes with eigenvalues above the noise floor ∥Σ^−Σ∥op∼D/N are reliable, yielding a truncated Mahalanobis energy that governs classification performance. Under a power-law spectral model, this energy can be approximated by a truncated Riemann zeta function, linking eigenvalue decay to data efficiency and AUC. Within this framework, multimodal learning acts as spectral stabilization: vision-language models impose low-rank constraints that suppress noise-dominated directions and preserve the eigengap, increasing K(N) under data scarcity. Across MNIST and multi-disease neuroimaging, we show that multimodal training maintains more stable modes and improves class separation, even when unimodal models achieve comparable few-shot accuracy. These results identify spectral collapse as a fundamental bottleneck in low-data learning. We use truncated Mahalanobis energy and K(N) to diagnose encoder quality, and introduce zeta-based spectral filtering as a principled approach to improve data efficiency.
Nikhil J. Dhinagar, Vidhi Chhatbar, Chirag Jagad +6
Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.
Justin Lovelace, Christian Belardi, Srivatsa Kundurthy +2
Neural scaling laws establish a predictable relationship between model performance and data or compute, offering crucial guidance for resource allocation in new domains and tasks. Yet such laws are most needed precisely where they are hardest to obtain: fitting one for a new model task pair demands expensive sweeps that typically exhaust the very compute budget the law is meant to economize. This paper poses the research question of how to develop generalizable scaling laws: laws fit once on a well-resourced source domain and reliably transported to new domains where running a full sweep is infeasible, which requires a fundamental understanding of when and why scaling properties change. We address this by identifying the right invariants: scaling laws are preserved under bijective (information-preserving) transformations of the data and modified in predictable, information-theoretically grounded ways under non-bijective transformations that lower its information resolution ρ: a single axis along which a law fit in one domain can be transported to another. We validate this across language, vision, and speech, and demonstrate two cross-domain applications: predicting scaling for language models trained on electronic health records from laws fit on general text, and predicting time-series classification scaling under varying levels of noise injection, recovering the data-scaling exponents to within 3% error.