Heterogeneity-Aware Personalized Federated Learning for Industrial Predictive Analytics
Authors: Yuhan Hu, Xiaolei Fang
Organizations: Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
Abstract
Federated prognostics enable clients (e.g., companies, factories, and production lines) to collaboratively develop a failure time prediction model while keeping each client's data local and confidential. However, traditional federated models often assume homogeneity in the degradation processes across clients, an assumption that may not hold in many industrial settings. To overcome this, this paper proposes a personalized federated prognostic model designed to accommodate clients with heterogeneous degradation processes, allowing them to build tailored prognostic models. The prognostic model iteratively facilitates the underlying pairwise collaborations between clients with similar degradation patterns, which enhances the performance of personalized federated learning. To estimate parameters jointly using decentralized datasets, we develop a federated parameter estimation algorithm based on proximal gradient descent. The proposed approach addresses the limitations of existing federated prognostic models by simultaneously achieving model personalization, preserving data privacy, and providing comprehensive failure time distributions. The superiority of the proposed model is validated through extensive simulation studies and a case study using the turbofan engine degradation dataset from the NASA repository.
Time-to-event modeling provides a systematic framework for estimating time-dependent failure risk, reliability, and remaining useful life (RUL) from longitudinal condition monitoring data. However, applying these models to distributed prognostics remains challenging because sensor trajectories and failure-time records are often stored across organizations or operational sites and cannot be centrally pooled due to privacy or proprietary constraints. Moreover, the classical Cox proportional hazards model relies on a nonseparable partial likelihood involving global risk sets, making direct optimization difficult under standard federated learning protocols. This paper presents a federated longitudinal-survival modeling framework for collaborative system failure prognostics. The proposed framework combines longitudinal sensor representation learning with a client-separable discrete-time hazard objective, enabling multiple clients to collaboratively train a prognostic model without sharing raw sensor measurements or individual failure records. Time-dependent representations extracted from multivariate sensor histories are used to estimate interval-specific failure hazards, reliability curves, and system RUL. Experiments on the four C-MAPSS turbofan engine degradation subsets under simulated decentralized settings demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves prognostic performance over isolated local training while maintaining performance comparable to centralized training across heterogeneous operating conditions and failure modes. These results demonstrate the potential of federated longitudinal-survival modeling for collaborative, data-aware condition monitoring and system failure prognostics.
Federated learning (FL) enables aircraft fleet operators to jointly train remaining-useful-life (RUL) models from engine sensor telemetry without sharing raw data. This study examines two complementary challenges: benign heterogeneity, where honest operators observe different operating conditions and fault modes, and adversarial heterogeneity, where compromised operators submit poisoned updates. We conduct a controlled, safety-oriented evaluation using a multi-task one-dimensional convolutional neural network and a structurally non-IID partition of the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) benchmark. We compare four remedies for benign heterogeneity and evaluate five attacks against four aggregation methods, including a physically motivated sensor-value backdoor designed to mask engine degradation. Shared-representation personalization closes approximately 70% of the local-to-centralized root-mean-square-error gap, compared with 21% for proximal regularization and 10% for server-side reweighting. The backdoor achieves a 94.9% attack success rate against standard averaging while leaving clean accuracy statistically unchanged, demonstrating that accuracy alone cannot certify model safety and that attack success must be evaluated explicitly. Krum reduces attack success by an order of magnitude and is the only evaluated aggregator that withstands coordinated attackers, whereas personalization alone provides no protection. Combining personalization with robust aggregation restores robustness (2.8% attack success) with only a small accuracy cost, revealing a trade-off between robust update selection and collaborative representation learning. Results remain consistent across client counts and on a harder six-condition dataset. Code and data partitions are released for reproducibility.
Chinmoy Mitra, Md. Mehedi Hasan Nipu, Mohammad Sakib Mahmood +2
We present Personalized Federated Hierarchical Gaussian Processes (pFedHGP) for probabilistic regression and classification when data are distributed across heterogeneous clients. Each client's latent function decomposes into (i) a shared global component, (ii) a client-specific deviation that shares the global kernel structure, and (iii) a flexible local residual. Sparse inducing-variable approximations and federated variational inference keep raw data local while the server synchronizes only low-dimensional statistics for the shared component. Full predictive distributions support uncertainty-aware decisions. In application studies, pFedHGP attains perfect fault classification in press tonnage monitoring using 13.77% of labeled cycles and recovers geographic zones in federated air-quality modeling without centralizing station-level time series. An Instantaneous Linear Mixing Model viewpoint links the hierarchy to multi-output Gaussian processes for correlated sensors.