Collaborative System Failure Prognostics via Federated Longitudinal-Survival Modeling

Federated prognostics enable clients (e.g., companies, factories, and production lines) to collaboratively develop a failure time prediction model while keeping each client's data local and confidential. However, traditional federated models often assume homogeneity in the degradation processes across clients, an assumption that may not hold in many industrial settings. To overcome this, this paper proposes a personalized federated prognostic model designed to accommodate clients with heterogeneous degradation processes, allowing them to build tailored prognostic models. The prognostic model iteratively facilitates the underlying pairwise collaborations between clients with similar degradation patterns, which enhances the performance of personalized federated learning. To estimate parameters jointly using decentralized datasets, we develop a federated parameter estimation algorithm based on proximal gradient descent. The proposed approach addresses the limitations of existing federated prognostic models by simultaneously achieving model personalization, preserving data privacy, and providing comprehensive failure time distributions. The superiority of the proposed model is validated through extensive simulation studies and a case study using the turbofan engine degradation dataset from the NASA repository.

Federated learning (FL) enables aircraft fleet operators to jointly train remaining-useful-life (RUL) models from engine sensor telemetry without sharing raw data. This study examines two complementary challenges: benign heterogeneity, where honest operators observe different operating conditions and fault modes, and adversarial heterogeneity, where compromised operators submit poisoned updates. We conduct a controlled, safety-oriented evaluation using a multi-task one-dimensional convolutional neural network and a structurally non-IID partition of the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) benchmark. We compare four remedies for benign heterogeneity and evaluate five attacks against four aggregation methods, including a physically motivated sensor-value backdoor designed to mask engine degradation. Shared-representation personalization closes approximately 70% of the local-to-centralized root-mean-square-error gap, compared with 21% for proximal regularization and 10% for server-side reweighting. The backdoor achieves a 94.9% attack success rate against standard averaging while leaving clean accuracy statistically unchanged, demonstrating that accuracy alone cannot certify model safety and that attack success must be evaluated explicitly. Krum reduces attack success by an order of magnitude and is the only evaluated aggregator that withstands coordinated attackers, whereas personalization alone provides no protection. Combining personalization with robust aggregation restores robustness (2.8% attack success) with only a small accuracy cost, revealing a trade-off between robust update selection and collaborative representation learning. Results remain consistent across client counts and on a harder six-condition dataset. Code and data partitions are released for reproducibility.

Survival analysis is central to clinical decision-making, yet reliable time-to-event models require large, diverse cohorts that are rarely available at a single institution, while privacy regulations restrict the centralization of patient data. Federated learning (FL) offers a privacy-preserving alternative by training shared models without exchanging raw data, but its effectiveness for survival modeling under realistic, heterogeneous conditions remains insufficiently understood. This paper presents a systematic, multi-model evaluation of federated survival analysis on a cross-institutional breast cancer cohort with naturally heterogeneous distributed clients. Three representative survival models, the Cox Proportional Hazards model, DeepSurv, and Random Survival Forest (RSF), are compared across centralized, local, and federated training, and three federated optimization strategies (FedAvg, FedProx, and FedAdam) are assessed for the gradient-based models. Results show that FL consistently outperforms local training and approaches, and occasionally exceeds, centralized performance, while RSF offers the best overall balance of discrimination, calibration, and robustness across heterogeneous clients. We further find that performance depends on the diversity of client distributions, and that FedAvg and FedProx are stronger and more stable than FedAdam. Based on these findings, we derive practical, decision-oriented guidelines mapping data, privacy, interpretability, and resource constraints to recommended model and training-paradigm choices for federated survival modeling in healthcare.