On-Meter Graph Machine Learning: A Case Study of PV Power Forecasting for Grid Edge Intelligence

Electricity forecasting often involves spatially related signals observed over regions, substations, and feeders, and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide a natural way to represent these relations. Building a complete GNN forecasting experiment is nonetheless laborious, because graph construction, model selection, training, aggregation, and interpretation sit in incompatible tools. We present GraphToolbox, an open-source Python framework that unifies these stages in one configurationdriven pipeline built on PyTorch Geometric. It offers data-driven graph construction, an adapter that instantiates and trains 51 of the 65 PyTorch Geometric convolutions together with the recurrent cells of PyTorch Geometric Temporal, online expert aggregation, forecasting interpretability, and significance testing on cached forecasts. We evaluate the pipeline in two case studies. On French regional load, the 48 convolutions included in the complete forecasting sweep fall in a band from 1.14% to 1.60% error, online aggregation lowers this to 0.98%, and the graph models improve on classical additive and boosting baselines. On net-load, direct graph models are less accurate than a classical additive model, while forecasting each physical component separately improves them without closing that gap. Both comparisons use the same experimental interface, illustrating the role of GraphToolbox in systematic architectural evaluation.

Fast and reliable optimal power flow (OPF) approximation is important for power system operation, yet heterogeneous OPF graph models are often evaluated either with architecture-specific implementations or on limited training corpora. This paper presents a large-scale heterogeneous graph-learning workflow, built on HydraGNN, for data-driven OPF surrogate modeling and graph foundation-model (GFM) development. The workflow preserves buses, generators, loads, shunts, alternating-current (AC) lines, transformers, and device-to-bus relations and provides a common implementation for distributed preprocessing, multi-graphics-processing-unit (GPU) training, hyperparameter optimization (HPO), and downstream adaptation. Using approximately three million heterogeneous graphs from ten Power Grid Library for Benchmarking AC Optimal Power Flow Algorithms (PGLib-OPF) cases spanning 14 to 13,659 buses, we compare six heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) families under a common HPO campaign on Frontier, resulting in two compact HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT models (~1.6-1.7 million parameters) that achieve the lowest observed validation MSE. Strong and weak scaling using up to 1,024 Frontier nodes show that 256 nodes (corresponding to 1,024 AMD MI250X GPUs) provides the best time-to-solution balance for the measured workload. Two downstream tasks evaluate task adaptation on the IEEE 118-bus case: a classification task to distinguish nominal operating conditions from artificially generated extreme-overload conditions and N-1 single-component-outage regression to predict bus voltage magnitude and phase angle. Partial fine-tuning provides the strongest balance between predictive performance and computational requirements.

Short-term forecasting of cloud-induced power ramps across a network of distributed photovoltaic (PV) or irradiance sensors is a recognised pain point for grid operators. A natural idea is to make the graph neural network (GNN) advection-aware: connect each site to the sites upwind of it, with edge time-lags set by the cloud-motion vector (CMV), so that a ramp is propagated forward before it physically arrives. Using a controlled synthetic testbed with a known wind field, we show that (i) with a realistic cross-correlation CMV estimate, an explicit advection graph does not beat a plain static or learned-adjacency spatiotemporal GNN; (ii) roughly half of the benefit available from a perfect CMV comes simply from providing an accurate motion vector as an input feature, not from graph structure; and (iii) advection helps only when the advective displacement over the forecast horizon, v*H, fits inside the sensor network. Motivated by (ii), we introduce a small self-supervised cloud-motion estimator -- a position-aware encoder trained only on a multi-lag optical-flow reconstruction objective with an annealed kernel -- that recovers the true wind vector to 2-4 degrees median angular error, 2-4x better than the classical cross-correlation method across every wind regime. Freezing this estimator and feeding its vector to the forecaster closes about 60% of the oracle-CMV RMSE gap at moderate wind (8-15% RMSE reduction over no advection), with no external wind data. We also report a negative result for a spatially-coherent probabilistic head. All claims are established on a single synthetic simulator; we discuss why real-network validation is the necessary next step and outline it.