Solar Power Forecasting

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Overview

Solar power forecasting estimates future photovoltaic output or solar irradiance, helping grid operators and energy systems plan around weather-driven variability and fast ramps. Methods range from persistence and statistical or boosted-tree models to temporal neural networks, transformers, graph models, and physics-informed approaches; many combine power histories with numerical weather forecasts, satellite data, or sky images. Probabilistic methods, including quantile and conformal prediction, add calibrated uncertainty, while transfer learning and synthetic histories address sites with scarce data. A central challenge is generalizing across sites and weather regimes: average accuracy can hide failures during extremes, and results depend on forecast inputs, evaluation design, and the trade-off between accuracy, reliability, and computational cost.

Latest papers

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45 papers7 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Reducing Multi-Horizon Photovoltaic Forecast Error through Tree-Anchored Expert Combination

    Oct 22, 2026Sun Ze, Zhou Liguo, Xu Yuqing +3Solar Power ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Huaibei Normal University, China · Chair of Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and Real-time Systems, Technical University of Munich, Germany

  2. Foundation-Style Pretraining for Scalable and Transferable Distributed PV Forecasting

    Oct 20, 2026Dayin Chen, Xiaodan Shi, Xin Xu +6Solar Power ForecastingTime-Series Foundation Models

    Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China · International Centre of Urban Energy Nexus, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China · Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo, 315200, China +2

  3. A Hybrid TFT-NBEATS Framework for Robust Multi-Horizon Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

    Oct 19, 2026Shafi Bin Sultan, Sabik Bin Sultan, Mohammad Tajrian Arafat Alvi +2Solar Power ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    St. Joseph Higher Secondary School, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Bangladesh Air Force Shaheen College, Kurmitolla, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Computer Science & Engineering, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Bangladesh +2

  4. PING: physics informed graph neural network for advection-diffusion processes with applications to solar power forecasting

    Oct 13, 2026Jelena Simeunović, Baptiste Schubnel, Pierre-Jean Alet +2Physics-Informed GNNsSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    CSEM, Rue de Jaquet-Droz 1, 2002 Neuchâtel, Switzerland · Department of Electrical Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Rte Cantonale, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.

  5. Nearest Neighbor Functional Curve Completion for Intraday Probabilistic Revisions of Renewable Generation Forecasts

    Oct 12, 2026Guillermo Terrén-Serrano, Michael LudkovskiProbabilistic Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Environmental Markets Lab (emLab), University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. · Environmental Studies Program, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. · Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

  6. Constructed regional photovoltaic generation fields improve ultra-short-term distributed solar forecasting

    Oct 12, 2026Dayin Chen, Xiaodan Shi, Xin Xu +5Solar Power ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Industrial Intelligence and Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo 315200, China. · Ningbo Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Simulation, Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo 315200, China · Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering, and the International Centre of Urban Energy Nexus, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China. +1

  7. State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting

    Sep 29, 2026Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2Time Series ForecastingSolar Power Forecasting

    Huaibei Normal University, China

  8. Transfer Learning with Conformalized Quantile Regression for Solar PV Forecasting Under Load-Shedding-Driven Data Scarcity

    Sep 22, 2026Rakib Abdullah, K. M. Tahlil Mahfuz FarukSolar Power ForecastingTransfer Learning

    Department of AI and Data Science Green University of Bangladesh

  9. Ensemble Complexity in Photovoltaic Forecasting

    Sep 14, 2026Sun Ze, Zhou Liguo, Xu Yuqing +2Ensemble LearningSolar Power Forecasting

    aSchool of Computer Science and Technology, Huaibei Normal University, China

  10. Horizon-specific Expert Fusion for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

    Sep 14, 2026Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2Ensemble LearningSolar Power Forecasting

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Huaibei Normal University, China

  11. Solar Intelligence

    Sep 12, 2026Jyotsna SinghSolar Power Forecasting

    College of Information Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

  12. Bidirectional Multimodal Fusion of Sky Images and Time-Series for Solar Forecasting with Large Language Models

    Sep 10, 2026Ken Chen, Maneesha Perera, Wei Wang +3Multivariate Time Series ForecastingMultimodal Large Language Models

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia · Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Sri Lanka

  13. When Does Advection-Aware Graph Nowcasting Help? A Controlled Study of Distributed Solar Ramp Forecasting with a Self-Supervised Cloud-Motion Estimator

    Sep 8, 2026Phillip JiangSolar Power ForecastingSolar Irradiance Forecasting

    Appsofa LLC

  14. SolarBench: A global solar energy nowcasting benchmark

    Sep 5, 2026Yuhao Nie, Stephen Campbell, Quentin Paletta +18Solar Power ForecastingSolar Irradiance Forecasting

    Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States. · Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States. · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States. +13

  15. FarSky: Task-Aware Latent-Space Coupling for Generative Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting

    Aug 6, 2026Yann Fabel, Bijan Nouri, Milon Miah +4Solar Irradiance ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    1DLR, Institute of Solar Research · 2RWTH Aachen University · 3CIEMAT, Energy Department, Renewable Energy Division

  16. An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting

    Aug 3, 2026Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah +2Ensemble LearningTime Series Forecasting

    University of Southampton

  17. A Controlled Visual-Backbone Benchmark for Multimodal Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting

    Jul 26, 2026Oshadha Samarakoon, Dushan Herath, Ishara Ranmandala +4Solar Irradiance ForecastingVision Transformer

    Dept. of EEE, University of Peradeniya · Peradeniya, Sri Lanka · MARC, University of Peradeniya

  18. Improving Wind and Solar Power Prediction with Efficient Wrapper-based Feature Selection: An Empirical Study

    Jul 15, 2026Daniel Grillmeyer, Marius Hadry, Michael Stenger +3Solar Power ForecastingFeature Selection

    University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany · Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Mosbach, Mosbach, Germany

  19. Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

    Jul 14, 2026Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng ChenTime Series ForecastingSolar Power Forecasting

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China · Key Laboratory of High Impact Weather (special), China Meteorological Administration, Changsha, 410073, China

  20. Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting

    Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaRegression Prediction IntervalsGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, India

  21. PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction

    Jul 9, 2026Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu +3Time Series ForecastingNon-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 102206, Beijing, China · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China

  22. Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting

    Jun 5, 2026Lorenzo Longarini, Alessandro Rongoni, Simone Silenzi +2Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Sistemi 2000 srl, Civitanova Marche, Italy · Department of Engineering ”Enzo Ferrari”, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy · Department of Political Sciences, Communication and International Relations, University of Macerata, Macerata, Italy

  23. Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting

    Jun 4, 2026Jingxin Zhang Xiaoqin WangSolar Irradiance ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China

  24. Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling

    May 27, 2026Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan DriesenSequential Decision MakingTime Series Forecasting

    ESAT-Electa KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, 3001, Belgium

  25. Inpainting-Style Conditional Diffusion for Multivariable Time Series Forecasting

    May 27, 2026Kourosh Kiani, S. M. MuyeenMultivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    1Electrical and Computer Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran · Electrical Engineering Department, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar

  26. LLM Agent Based Renewable Energy Forecasting Using Edge and IoT Data A Review of Solar Wind Weather and Grid Aware Decision Support

    May 24, 2026Pavan Manjunath, Thomas PrueferTime Series ForecastingLLM-Based Time Series Forecasting

    Independent Researcher

  27. Learning Long-Term Temporal Dependencies in Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Through Multi-Horizon Forecasting

    May 18, 2026Sumit Laha, Ankit Sharma, Hassan ForooshMultivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida, United States.

  28. A Quantum Inspired Variational Kernel and Explainable AI Framework for Cross Region Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting

    May 9, 2026Pavan Manjunath, Thomas PruferPower SystemsTime Series Forecasting

    Independent Research Scholar, Germany

  29. SolarTformer: A Transformer Based Deep Learning Approach for Short Term Solar Power Forecasting

    Apr 27, 2026Ankan Basu, Jyotiraditya Roy, Aditya Datta +2Multivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Positional Astronomy Centre, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning), Heritage Institute of Technology, Kolkata, India +2

  30. Forecasting Solar Energy Using a Single Image

    Apr 23, 2026Jeremy Klotz, Shree K. NayarSolar Irradiance ForecastingSolar Power Forecasting

    Computer Science Department, Columbia University, 500 West 120th St., New York, 10027, NY, USA