On Bayesian Softmax-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Models

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures increase model capacity by combining a collection of expert predictors through input-dependent routing, while often activating only a small subset of experts for each input. Despite their growing importance in modern large-scale models, the statistical roles of their design choices, especially routing, sparse activation, and shared experts, remain only partially understood, as existing theory has largely focused on parametric or correctly specified MoE models. In this paper, we view MoE as a form of localized aggregation and show how this localization reshapes the approximation-estimation-computation tradeoff. We derive oracle risk bounds for learning dense and sparse routing with evolving experts, separating approximation, expert-learning, and router-estimation errors, and characterize how sparse Top-K routing can retain the benefits of localized aggregation while controlling per-input computation. We also interpret gating through the geometry of input space, relating routing performance to regions of local expert advantage, and show how shared experts, as adopted in architectures such as DeepSeekMoE, can extract common predictive structure so that routed experts focus on residual local variation. Together, these results provide a unified statistical framework for understanding MoE through input-dependent expert aggregation, in which expert specialization and computational tradeoffs are governed by local predictive structure.

Softmax routing approaches hard top-1 routing as the temperature tends to zero, but the limiting passage is singular at router ties. This paper develops a boundary-layer calculus for this soft-to-hard limit in population squared-loss mixture-of-experts regression. For a router with logits $a_k(x;φ)$, the relevant local quantity is the top-two margin $Δ(x;φ)$, and the relevant global quantity is the boundary mass $\mathbb{P}(Δ(X;φ)\le w)$. Under smoothness and transversality assumptions, coarea and tubular-neighborhood estimates show how this mass scales with the slab width; in the binary case the leading coefficient is an explicit surface integral over the routing interface. These geometric estimates give quantitative bounds between the soft objective $L_τ$ and the hard objective $L_0$, including an $O(τ^α)$ uniform comparison under a margin-tail condition, and yield $Γ$-convergence of the soft objectives on compact parameter spaces. The main conclusion is that the zero-temperature approximation is controlled by the probability carried by an $O(τ)$ neighborhood of the routing interfaces, not by temperature alone. After isolating this boundary-layer part of the problem, we record a conditional landscape-transfer theorem from hard to small-temperature soft routing and a reduced two-expert Gaussian calculation illustrating local symmetry breaking. Synthetic diagnostics are included only as controlled checks of the boundary-layer predictions.

Mixtures of experts (MoE) are conditional mixture models in which both the mixing proportions and the component densities depend on the predictors, and are widely used for regression, classification and model-based clustering of heterogeneous data. Fitting MoE by maximum likelihood becomes unstable, and sometimes infeasible, when the predictors are numerous or correlated. We propose a regularized maximum likelihood framework for simultaneous parameter estimation and feature selection in MoE whose experts belong to the generalized linear model family, covering Gaussian, Poisson and multinomial responses within a single formulation. Sparsity is induced in both the gating network and the experts through $\ell_1$ penalties, and the penalized log-likelihood is maximized by a proximal Newton-EM algorithm whose M-step reduces to weighted Lasso problems with closed-form coordinate-ascent updates. Unlike existing penalized MoE procedures, the algorithm requires neither a local quadratic approximation of the penalty nor any matrix inversion, it returns exactly sparse estimates without thresholding, and a proximal Newton-type variant guarantees a monotone increase of the penalized objective at every iteration. On simulated data and five real data sets, the method recovers the actual sparsity support and delivers prediction and clustering accuracy that is competitive with, and often better than, state-of-the-art regularized MoE. The source codes of our developed algorithms and their documentation are publicly available on Github at https://github.com/nv-thin/GLM-RMoE.