cs.LGApr 22, 2026

Too Sharp, Too Sure: When Calibration Follows Curvature

Authors: Alessandro MorosiniMatea GjikaTomaso PoggioPierfrancesco Beneventano

Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Abstract

Modern neural networks can achieve high accuracy while remaining poorly calibrated, producing confidence estimates that do not match empirical correctness. Yet calibration is often treated as a post-hoc attribute. We take a different perspective: we study calibration as a training-time phenomenon on small vision tasks, and ask whether calibrated solutions can be obtained reliably by intervening on the training procedure. We identify a tight coupling between calibration, curvature, and margins during training of deep networks under multiple gradient-based methods. Empirically, Expected Calibration Error (ECE) closely tracks curvature-based sharpness throughout optimization. Mathematically, we show that both ECE and Gauss--Newton curvature are controlled, up to problem-specific constants, by the same margin-dependent exponential tail functional along the trajectory. Guided by this mechanism, we introduce a margin-aware training objective that explicitly targets robust-margin tails and local smoothness, yielding improved out-of-sample calibration across optimizers without sacrificing accuracy.

Explore similar work

May 29, 2025cs.LG

Towards Understanding The Calibration Benefits of Sharpness-Aware Minimization

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for overconfidence, which may have disastrous consequences. In this paper, unlike standard training such as stochastic gradient descent, we show that the recently proposed sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) counteracts this tendency towards overconfidence. The theoretical analysis suggests that SAM allows us to learn models that are already well-calibrated by implicitly maximizing the entropy of the predictive distribution. Inspired by this finding, we further propose a variant of SAM, coined as CSAM, to ameliorate model calibration. Extensive experiments on various datasets, including ImageNet-1K, demonstrate the benefits of SAM in reducing calibration error. Meanwhile, CSAM performs even better than SAM and consistently achieves lower calibration error than other approaches
Chengli Tan, Yubo Zhou, Haishan Ye +7
May 22, 2026cs.LG

Enhancing Deep Neural Network Reliability with Refinement and Calibration

Although deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve high predictive accuracy, their confidence estimates are often unreliable, potentially compromising user trust in their decisions. This has motivated research on calibrated models, where calibration measures how well a model's predicted confidence aligns with the empirical probability of correctness. However, calibration metrics can often be improved through post-processing techniques that merely mimic training-time uncertainty without genuinely improving the model's understanding. For this reason, statisticians recommend that models be not only calibrated but also refined. Intuitively, a model is considered more refined if it assigns significantly different confidence scores to correct and incorrect predictions, a property also referred to as sharpness. We observe that many existing calibration methods improve calibration at the cost of reduced refinement. To address this limitation, we propose: (1) a novel loss function that explicitly promotes refinement and can be optimized through supervised contrastive learning; and (2) a unified training framework, RefCal, that jointly optimizes calibration, refinement, and accuracy to improve DNN reliability. On the CIFAR-100-LT dataset with 10 percent class imbalance, RefCal achieves (accuracy, refinement, ECE) of (58.81, 95.67, 0.08), substantially outperforming the widely used Correctness Ranking Loss, which achieves (46.27, 93.7, 0.22).
Ramya Hebbalaguppe, Ajay Shastry, Soumya Suvra Ghosal +1
Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

LiST: Lipschitz Scaling Training for Robust and Calibrated Neural Networks

While accuracy, robustness, and calibration are all essential for reliable neural networks, they are often studied separately; developing models that satisfy all three simultaneously remains a central challenge. Lipschitz-constrained models guarantee robustness by design, yet the manual selection of the Lipschitz constraint L governs the resulting accuracy-robustness trade-off, and their calibration properties remain largely underexplored. In this work, we highlight a theoretical and empirical link between the enforced Lipschitz constraint and Temperature Scaling, a state-of-the-art calibration method. Specifically, we find that for a given training scheme, there exists a non-trivial value L* that yields an out-of-the-box calibrated network, and that calibration acts as a principled criterion to select a well-defined operating point on the accuracy-robustness Pareto front. Leveraging these insights, we introduce Lipschitz Scaling Training (LiST), a novel training paradigm that iteratively adjusts the global Lipschitz constant to reach this operating point. Through a margin parameter in the training loss, LiST further enables the construction of a fully calibrated Pareto front, allowing users to navigate the accuracy-robustness trade-off while remaining calibrated throughout. At convergence, LiST also enables the reintegration of calibration data into training, improving sample efficiency without sacrificing calibration. We validate LiST on CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet, demonstrating competitive accuracy and robustness against constrained and unconstrained baselines, while remaining calibrated out of the box. Code is available at GitHub.
Arthur Chiron, Franck Mamalet, Thomas Massena +2