Validating a Deep Learning Algorithm to Identify Patients with Glaucoma using Systemic Electronic Health Records

Glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide, yet most automated diagnosis systems rely on opaque deep-learning models that offer little clinical interpretability. We present GlaKG, a biomarker-centric fundus knowledge graph that integrates structural biomarkers, clinically grounded rules, and image features to produce traceable reasoning for glaucoma diagnosis and risk stratification. GlaKG encodes six entity types (Fundus Image, Optic Disc, Neural Rim, Pathology, Diagnosis, Risk Level), eight relation types, and 11 clinically validated rules into a unified graph, so that every prediction is accompanied by an explicit reasoning chain linking biomarker evidence to activated clinical rules. To keep knowledge-based reasoning strictly separate from label information, we adopt a post-processing fusion framework that combines ResNet50 image embeddings with a normalized KG reasoning-chain score via a tunable weight alpha, with all fitting confined to the training split. On a publicly available, AI-annotated fundus dataset, GlaKG reaches F1 = 0.9953 for binary glaucoma classification and 0.930 accuracy with 0.922 weighted F1 for four-class risk stratification; we report openly that the dataset's biomarker annotations are highly label-correlated, and therefore frame these figures as an upper bound attainable with clean structured biomarkers rather than as leakage-free image-only performance. Feature-importance analysis shows KG-derived and biomarker features contributing near-equally (51.1% vs. 48.9%), and the reasoning chain flags borderline cases by exposing low chain scores rather than failing silently. GlaKG's central contribution is therefore a clinically auditable reasoning framework that complements raw predictive performance by explicitly exposing the biomarker evidence and rule activations behind each decision.

Early and accurate glaucoma detection is critical to prevent irreversible vision loss, yet existing AI methods often rely on unimodal inputs and lack interpretability. We present GlaBoost, a multimodal gradient boosting framework that unifies three complementary signals for glaucoma risk prediction: fundus image embeddings from a pretrained convolutional encoder,free-text neuroretinal rim assessments encoded by a transformer-based language model, and structured ophthalmic biomarkers. These modalities are fused into a single representation and classified by an enhanced XGBoost model.On two real-world annotated datasets, GlaBoost consistently outperforms unimodal and generic multimodal baselines. Feature importance analysis highlights the cup-to-disc ratio, rim thinning, and the ISNT rule as the dominant predictors, yielding clinically consistent and interpretable decisions. GlaBoost offers a transparent and scalable foundation for multimodal decision support in ophthalmology.

Effectively stratifying patient risk in chronic diseases like glaucoma is a major clinical challenge. Clinicians need tools to identify patients at high risk of progression from sparse and irregularly-sampled electronic health records (EHRs). We propose a novel deep kernel learning (DKL) architecture that leverages a Gaussian Process (GP) backend. The GP's kernel is defined by a transformer-based feature extractor applied to clinical-BERT embeddings to model glaucoma patient trajectories from multimodal EHR data. Our method successfully identifies three clinically distinct patient subgroups. Crucially, the model learns to decouple disease progression from current severity, identifying a high-risk group with a worsening trajectory despite having better average visual acuity than a second, stably poor group. This reveals that the model learns to identify progression risk rather than just the current disease state. This ability to stratify patients based on their risk trajectory progression offers a powerful tool for clinical decision support, enabling targeted interventions for high-risk individuals and improving the management of glaucoma care.