UKP_Psycontrol at SemEval-2026 Task 2: Modeling Valence and Arousal Dynamics from Text

Modeling dimensional affect in longitudinal text requires distinguishing current affect estimation from future affective change forecasting. Existing approaches often treat each text as an independent observation and apply similar assumptions to both tasks, without testing whether they rely on different information sources. This paper investigates that distinction using longitudinal self-reported ecological essays and feeling-word entries. We propose the Trait--State Affective Prediction (TSAP) framework and its temporal extension E-TSAP for per-text valence and arousal prediction, evaluated on a held-out prediction test set of 1,737 entries from 91 users. We further propose the Affective Change Forecaster Hybrid (ACF-Hybrid) for next-step affective change forecasting, evaluated on a held-out forecasting test set of 46 users. For prediction, E-TSAP achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.670 for valence and 0.449 for arousal. For forecasting, textual representations perform worse than compact numeric trajectory baselines: the text-inclusive model achieves only r=0.316 for valence and r=0.284 for arousal, whereas a simple prior-state baseline reaches r=0.615 and r=0.670, respectively. ACF-Hybrid, using dimension-specific numeric trajectory features, achieves r=0.659 for valence and $r=0.658$ for arousal. These results show that textual semantics support current affect prediction, whereas future affective change is better captured through prior numeric trajectory dynamics.

Emotion understanding is a core capability for LLMs to interact effectively with humans, yet existing evaluation paradigms rely on discrete emotion label prediction and fail to capture the cognitive processes underlying emotion generation. Grounded in appraisal theory, we introduce CAREBench, the first benchmark with complete inferential chain annotations from both first- and third-person perspectives on real-world narratives, spanning appraisal reasoning, appraisal ratings, and multi-label emotion annotation. We propose a process-level evaluation framework and conduct systematic experiments across six LLMs organized around four research questions. We find that stronger models match or surpass human observers on certain tasks, yet fall short on appraisal reasoning and positive emotion recognition; performance across chain steps and sensitivity to appraisal interventions exhibit dissociations across models; and current models have not internalized the mechanisms needed to capture human subjective heterogeneity. These findings suggest that downstream emotion prediction metrics may overestimate LLMs' true emotion understanding, and CAREBench provides a foundation for more diagnostically informative evaluation of LLMs' affective cognitive capabilities.

Recent work identified emotion vectors in Claude Sonnet 4.5, which are internal representations that encode emotion concepts, causally influence behavior, and exhibit geometry mirroring human psychological structure. We test the generality of these findings in two open-weight models, Apertus-8B-Instruct-2509 and Gemma-4-E4B-it, extracting emotion contrast vectors across all layers, using two model-generated corpora. We recover valence geometry for both models, with peak PC1--valence correlations of $r = 0.76$ and $r = 0.83$, approaching the $r = 0.81$ reported for Claude.Beyond replication, we observe notable differences in how valence representations emerge across model depth. In Gemma-4-E4B-it, valence is strongly encoded in early layers but collapses towards later layers, whereas Apertus-8B-Instruct-2509 exhibits the opposite pattern, with valence representations absent in early layers, but emerging at mid depths. Arousal encoding, in contrast, is sensitive to the extraction corpus: both models show stronger PC2--arousal alignment with Gemma-generated stories ($r$ up to $0.45$) than Apertus-generated ones ($r \leq 0.21$), suggesting arousal-relevant cues are unevenly distributed across generated corpora. We open-source our experiment code and dataset for reproducible investigation of emotion representations across language model architectures.