Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Neural operators learn mappings between function spaces, but are typically developed with dense input-output training fields and fully observed inputs at inference. Many scientific problems require instead predicting solution fields from sparse, irregular, or partial observations under uncertainty. We introduce Neural Operator Processes (NOPs), a framework that unifies neural-process conditioning with neural-operator decoding to predict full output fields from limited context. NOPs condition on sparse joint input-output observations and support deterministic and probabilistic prediction within a shared encoder-decoder architecture. We study two conditioning strategies, convolutional pooled summaries and query-aligned attention, and analyze how their interaction with latent stochastic variables depends on PDE geometry. Across function regression and three PDE benchmarks, we find that sparse conditional operator learning is viable and can match dense-grid behavior in several regimes, that preserving local context-query geometry is essential in non-periodic settings but less so in spectrally smooth periodic regimes, and that uncertainty-aware operator learning succeeds when latent conditioning complements rather than overwrites the local geometric pathway. These results provide a basis for probabilistic operator learning under partial observations and help bridge operator learning and probabilistic meta-learning in function space.

In this paper, we propose a perturbation-based conformal prediction framework for uncertainty quantification in operator learning, with a focus on the 2D Navier--Stokes equations. While neural operators provide fast surrogates for expensive PDE solvers, they do not by themselves provide calibrated uncertainty for spatiotemporal field predictions. Our approach wraps a trained Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) with split conformal prediction and constructs the local uncertainty scale by comparing the predictions of two operators trained on nearly identical datasets: one on the original labels and one on labels perturbed by small Gaussian noise. We consider this procedure in the data-scarce regime, where the total label budget is fixed and methods that require a separate uncertainty network must divide training data between multiple models. On the 2D Navier--Stokes benchmark, the perturbation-based method produces substantially narrower conformal bands than existing methods under matched total data budgets while maintaining the target simultaneous coverage. These results suggest that perturbation sensitivity is a practical and sample-efficient uncertainty proxy for conformalized neural operators.

Neural operators provide fast surrogates for PDEs but their deterministic predictions limit their use in tasks requiring uncertainty quantification (UQ), especially under geometric variability. Existing approaches primarily model uncertainty in network parameters, largely overlooking the geometry-aware representations learned by the operator itself. We propose REEF-GP (Residual on Embedded Features Gaussian Process), a post-hoc UQ framework that fits a GP to the residuals of a frozen neural operator whose internal embeddings define the kernel feature space. Rather than learning a separate feature map, REEF-GP adapts the operator's intrinsic coordinate-feature representations to construct geometry-aware uncertainties. To ensure stability and scalability on unstructured domains, REEF-GP incorporates spectral-normalized projections, heteroscedastic geometry-aware noise, and efficient subset-based training that avoids restrictive low-rank approximations. Across five PDE benchmarks with varying geometries, REEF-GP preserves predictive accuracy while achieving calibrated uncertainty estimates competitive with deep ensembles but at a fraction of their cost. Our approach remains robust under geometric distribution shift, with uncertainty concentrating in physically meaningful regions (e.g., shock fronts). Our results demonstrate that accurate and scalable post-hoc UQ for neural operators can be achieved directly in their learned feature space, offering a practical alternative to parameter-centric approaches.