Stochastic Modeling of Human-Machine Authentication Channels under Partial Information Leakage
Authors: Nilesh Chakraborty, Mohammad Zulkernine, Burak Kantarci
Organizations: University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada · School of Computing, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada
Abstract
Reliable and secure human-machine communication is fundamental to IoT and cyber-physical ecosystems, where smartphones and wearables commonly serve as authentication controllers. PIN-based authentication can be viewed as a low-bandwidth communication channel through which users transmit numeric credentials under practical constraints. However, conventional evaluations adopt a binary view of security-treating such channels as either fully secure or fully compromised-thereby overlooking the progressive reliability degradation caused by partial information leakage in real-world IoT settings. In this paper, we model the PIN entry process as a stochastic human-IoT communication system and propose a context-conditioned probabilistic inference framework to quantify reliability loss and Quality-of-Service degradation under partial symbol exposure. The proposed approach treats missing digits as latent variables and estimates them using smoothed conditional probability distributions with fallback priors. Unlike traditional sequential models that assume contiguous positional dependencies, the method does not explicitly parameterize hidden-state transitions or emissions; instead, it performs context-driven probabilistic inference to approximate latent dependencies across digit positions. Using over one million real-world four-digit PIN samples, we evaluate single-, double-, and triple-digit leakage scenarios and derive position-dependent reliability metrics. The proposed model achieves up to 55.31% prediction accuracy for one missing digit and 12.12% for three missing digits, while consistently outperforming a standard sequence-model baseline and classical machine learning models in terms of precision, recall, and F1-score. These results formalize PIN entry as a noisy human--IoT communication channel and demonstrate substantial reliability degradation under realistic partial exposure conditions.
Data leakage -- contamination of a model with information unavailable at baseline -- is the dominant reproducibility failure in machine-learning-based science, yet detection tools require training code, external data, or domain expertise. None operates on the artifact an auditor most often holds: the model's output. We ask what can be decided about leakage from predictions and outcomes alone. We give a decision-theoretic framework in which leakage diagnostics are functionals of the predicted-risk/outcome law, parameterized by a threshold-weighting linked to proper scoring rules and decision-curve analysis. We prove a sharp impossibility: a recalibrated leak matching an honest model's calibration and discrimination is indistinguishable from honest performance by \emph{any} function of the predictions, so the broad class is detectable only against an externally supplied ceiling on achievable discrimination. We then prove what leakage cannot hide: a near-deterministic subgroup -- the signature of a near-label leak -- produces a sustained unit-purity head that no legitimate predictor of a non-deterministic outcome can manufacture, yielding a prior-free test. These results organize leakage into a trichotomy -- miscalibrated, broad-calibrated, and deterministic -- each with a matched detector and failure mode. We validate on UK Biobank using time-windowed comorbidity leakage with known, graded severity, measuring a detection floor of Δ\cstar≈0.007 on this endpoint, below which residual leakage is undetectable from output and too small to alter conclusions. The numerical floor is cohort- and endpoint-specific; the structural lesson is general: output-only detection fails where residual leakage is indistinguishable from an honestly stronger predictor. The test returns a verdict on a prediction vector in under a second on commodity hardware.
Some low-cost Internet of Things (IoT) sensor deployments lack device-level source authentication, leaving them vulnerable to impersonation or injected sensor readings. We present a lightweight approach to sensor impersonation detection in a small proof-of-concept study. We formulate detection as a sequence-prediction problem. A model with three LSTM layers and two fully connected layers is trained only on univariate temperature readings from a genuine sensor, and a window of readings is flagged when its mean absolute prediction error exceeds the mean genuine error by more than six standard deviations. The model is converted to TensorFlow Lite in three variants, non-quantized (554 KB), 16-bit weight quantized (298.5 KB), and 8-bit weight quantized (185 KB), targeting an Arduino Nano 33 BLE aggregator. The variants were evaluated with the TensorFlow Lite interpreter on the local server, since on-device execution of LSTM models was not yet supported by TensorFlow Lite for Microcontrollers at the time of the study. On a controlled testbed with the impostor sensor placed in a hotter outdoor location, the three variants reached detection accuracies of 99.980%, 99.972%, and 98.206%, and each flagged the change point when a test sequence switched from genuine to impostor data. Quantization made the model smaller but slower in our measurements. The genuine and impostor distributions were well separated, so these results show detection of a controlled distribution shift and should not be read as evidence of general device authentication.
Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are popular methods for empirically assessing the leakage of sensitive information in the training data through models or statistics learned from the data. The MIA vulnerability is often evaluated through false positive rate (FPR) and true positive rate (TPR) of a binary classifier that tries to predict whether a particular sample was in the training data. However, in order to reliably estimate the TPR especially for low FPR values, a lot of observations are needed, which in case of MIA translates to many target models, leading to large computational cost. To avoid excessive compute requirements, the MIA scores are often averaged over multiple individuals and multiple targeted models. We demonstrate two key weaknesses in this efficient MIA evaluation pipeline. First, we show that evaluating the TPR based on MIA scores concatenated across multiple individuals, commonly used to study vulnerabilities in the very low FPR regime, is not calibrated across the per-sample FPRs. This makes it unreliable as a tool for auditing differential privacy. To solve this, we propose a post-processing method to effectively calibrate the FPR across different samples. Second, we identify a finite population bias in the commonly used efficient likelihood-ratio attack (LiRA) implementation proposed by Carlini et al. 2022, leading to a positive bias in the per-sample vulnerability.