A prior-free blind detection of information leakage from model predictions
Authors: Laurence A. Jacobs
Organizations: Center for Molecular Cardiology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Center for Complexity Sciences, National University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Abstract
Data leakage -- contamination of a model with information unavailable at baseline -- is the dominant reproducibility failure in machine-learning-based science, yet detection tools require training code, external data, or domain expertise. None operates on the artifact an auditor most often holds: the model's output. We ask what can be decided about leakage from predictions and outcomes alone. We give a decision-theoretic framework in which leakage diagnostics are functionals of the predicted-risk/outcome law, parameterized by a threshold-weighting linked to proper scoring rules and decision-curve analysis. We prove a sharp impossibility: a recalibrated leak matching an honest model's calibration and discrimination is indistinguishable from honest performance by \emph{any} function of the predictions, so the broad class is detectable only against an externally supplied ceiling on achievable discrimination. We then prove what leakage cannot hide: a near-deterministic subgroup -- the signature of a near-label leak -- produces a sustained unit-purity head that no legitimate predictor of a non-deterministic outcome can manufacture, yielding a prior-free test. These results organize leakage into a trichotomy -- miscalibrated, broad-calibrated, and deterministic -- each with a matched detector and failure mode. We validate on UK Biobank using time-windowed comorbidity leakage with known, graded severity, measuring a detection floor of Δ\cstar≈0.007 on this endpoint, below which residual leakage is undetectable from output and too small to alter conclusions. The numerical floor is cohort- and endpoint-specific; the structural lesson is general: output-only detection fails where residual leakage is indistinguishable from an honestly stronger predictor. The test returns a verdict on a prediction vector in under a second on commodity hardware.
Early-warning models built from Learning Management System (LMS) logs aim to predict end-of-course outcomes early enough to enable timely learner support. However, reported "early" performance is often inflated by temporal leakage. This occurs when the pipeline uses information that would not yet be available at the time of prediction. We formalize cutoff-based early outcome prediction under a temporal availability constraint and introduce LEAP (Leakage-Excluded Early-Availability Protocol), which enforces cutoff-first truncation prior to joins and aggregation and audits feature provenance to prevent post-cutoff evidence from entering the benchmark. We instantiate LEAP on the public Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD) as a multi-step protocol for leakage-controlled evaluation across weekly cutoffs. Using several standard learning methods, we evaluate performance using ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, Brier score, and F1@0.5. Results show improving performance as the observation window expands, with a marked gain around week~3; Random Forest performs best at the earliest cutoffs, while Gradient Boosting dominates thereafter. Leakage ablations further show that temporal violations, especially through assessment information, can inflate apparent "early" performance.
Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-Hélène Abel, Bertrand Laforge
Evaluating code large language models (Code LLMs) requires reliable detection of data leakage, where benchmark performance is artificially inflated by exposure to benchmark data during pre-training. Existing approaches either assume access to proprietary training corpora, rely on brittle heuristics such as timestamp filtering, or use external reference sets with manually tuned, non-generalizable thresholds. To address these limitations, we introduce \textbf{SrDetection}, a unified \textbf{s}elf-\textbf{r}eferential leakage detection framework for both gray-box (access to model logits) and black-box (access to model outputs) settings. SrDetection generates semantically equivalent variants of a benchmark sample and detects leakage by contrasting the model's behavior on the original versus its variants, flagging cases where the original is disproportionately easier for the model. We further design a controlled leakage detection testbed and evaluate SrDetection in this environment. Across different models and training stages, SrDetection improves average F1 by 21.52 points in the gray-box setting and 14.46 points in the black-box setting over strong baselines, demonstrating robust, threshold-independent leakage detection. Finally, a gray-box study of 15 widely used Code LLMs on four popular benchmarks reveals benchmark-specific leakage patterns beyond prior overlap-based analyses\footnote{\footnotesize Source code and data are available at https://github.com/SMinL/SrDetectionCode
Machine learning components are now central to AI-infused software systems, from recommendations and code assistants to clinical decision support. As regulations and governance frameworks increasingly require deleting sensitive data from deployed models, machine unlearning is emerging as a practical alternative to full retraining. However, unlearning introduces a software quality-assurance challenge: under realistic deployment constraints and imperfect oracles, how can we test that a model no longer relies on targeted information? This paper frames unlearning testing as a first-class software engineering problem. We argue that practical unlearning tests must provide (i) thorough coverage over proxy and mediated influence pathways, (ii) debuggable diagnostics that localize where leakage persists, (iii) cost-effective regression-style execution under query budgets, and (iv) black-box applicability for API-deployed models. We outline a causal, pathway-centric perspective, causal fuzzing, that generates budgeted interventions to estimate residual direct and indirect effects and produce actionable "leakage reports". Proof-of-concept results illustrate that standard attribution checks can miss residual influence due to proxy pathways, cancellation effects, and subgroup masking, motivating causal testing as a promising direction for unlearning testing.