H3: A Healthcare Three-Hop Index for Physician Referral Network Prediction

Hypergraphs model higher-order relations that drive real-world decisions, from drug prescriptions to recommendations. A central structural signal in such data, beyond what pairwise relations can express, is interaction compositionality: whether a higher-order relation is compositional, emergent, or inhibitory with respect to its observed or unobserved sets. In polypharmacy, the regime decides whether a drug should be dropped, kept, or excluded: a compositional drug triple can be safely simplified, an emergent triple requires all drugs jointly, and an inhibitory triple flags a drug that disrupts an existing interaction. However, existing hypergraph learning methods, which merely propagate messages over observed hyperedges, leave this compositional signal unmodeled, allowing dangerous drug combinations to slip through and be misclassified. To this end, we propose the Hypergraph Pattern Machine (HGPM), shifting the paradigm from message passing to learning the compositional pattern of subsets. It tokenizes compositional subsets, organizes them in an inclusion DAG, and trains an inclusion-aware Transformer under masked reconstruction. On ten hypergraph benchmarks, HGPM matches or exceeds state-of-the-art methods. Notably, in a real adverse-event prediction case, HGPM correctly identifies the drug addition that inhibits the side effect among feature-identical candidates, a discrimination existing methods cannot make. The code and data are in https://github.com/KryieZhao/HGPM.git.

Predicting the existence and type of links (edges) between nodes in a multi-relational graph is key for applications from social interaction prediction to knowledge relationship identification. Enhancing local features with relevant global information is crucial for accurate link prediction, yet it remains challenging. We address this by modeling the relationship between node pairs as node influence. That is, whether the node influence can be propagated and what type of influence is propagated indicates where and what type the edge is, which will be the most relevant local and global information to predict the edges. To this end, we extend the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model to capture the influence propagation of nodes on a large scale through sub-graph structures. Subsequently, these sub-graphs are compressed using virtual edges, thereby substantially reducing the computation associated with utilizing the global graph structure. Finally, we propose the Influential Graph Neural Predictor, referred to as IGNP, a link prediction framework guided by influence propagation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method, which outperforms strong baselines by a large margin on the widely used and real-world datasets.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification, and its extension to graphs is an active research direction. Diffused Adaptive Prediction Sets (DAPS) is a widely used graph-aware diffusion baseline, propagating Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS) non-conformity scores along edges with a uniform coefficient $λ$. We identify a fundamental shortcoming of this design: the uniform low-pass diffusion presupposes graph homophily and proves detrimental on heterophilic graphs, enlarging the mean prediction-set size by up to 10.6% relative to plain APS. To mitigate this, we propose HeAD-CP, a family of node-wise diffusion variants whose coefficients are determined by a label-free local-homophily estimate derived from the GNN softmax. Three variants, namely signed-$γ$, edge-compatibility, and a DAPS-baseline-with-correction, are most effective at extreme heterophily, intermediate heterophily, and moderate-to-high homophily, respectively, and all preserve the marginal coverage guarantee. On ten benchmarks, the HeAD-CP family stays at or below plain APS on every dataset, while DAPS exceeds APS on six. The post-hoc oracle over the family improves over DAPS on 8/10 datasets at $p<0.01$ (paired Wilcoxon), with the largest gains on heterophilic graphs (10.3% on Texas); on the two homophilic datasets where DAPS still wins (CiteSeer, PubMed), it retains a marginal advantage of at most 0.002, statistically insignificant on CiteSeer ($p=0.23$). Designing a calibrated label-free selector that approaches this oracle is the main outstanding empirical question.