Objective: Accurate probability estimates are essential for the safe deployment of medical image segmentation models in clinical decision-making. However, modern deep segmentation networks are often poorly calibrated, a problem exacerbated when multiple expert annotations exhibit substantial disagreement. While inter-rater variability is typically treated as noise, it provides valuable information about intrinsic annotation ambiguity that must be reflected in model confidence. Methods: We improve the probabilistic calibration of medical image segmentation models by reformulating multi-rater supervision as an ordinal learning problem. Voxel-wise annotator agreement is treated as an ordered target, linking predictive confidence to the empirical variability in training data. This formulation allows the use of ordinal-aware scoring rules, such as the Ranked Probability Score ordinal loss, combined with a standard binary objective to preserve discriminative performance. Results: We evaluated the proposed approach across four public segmentation benchmarks spanning ophthalmology, histopathology, and thoracic imaging. Calibration was assessed using a multi-rater extension of expected calibration error. Results consistently show that ordinal-aware training yields substantially improved calibration with respect to inter-rater agreement without degrading segmentation accuracy. Conclusions: Treating multi-rater annotations as ordered information provides a principled and architecture-agnostic route to more reliable probabilistic segmentation models.
Deep learning-based medical image segmentation models are trained using annotations that exhibit systematic bias and variability across raters. While probabilistic multi-rater approaches can emulate annotator-specific delineations, annotator characteristics are typically encoded implicitly in deep latent feature space, making direct analysis of their influence on predictive distributions less straightforward. We propose a logit-space probabilistic segmentation framework based on stochastic variational Gaussian Process that explicitly decomposes predictions into an image-dependent reference logit distribution and annotator specific perturbations parameterised by bias and variance. This formulation enables more explicit analysis on how intra- and inter-rater variability propagate to predictive distributions. We evaluate the method on a multi-annotator medical image dataset, which shows that explicitly modelling annotator specific perturbations improves uncertainty calibration while maintaining comparable segmentation accuracy, compared with state-of-the-art multi-rater probabilistic segmentation method. The learned bias and variance parameters quantitatively reflect annotator-specific behaviour. Furthermore, controlled perturbation experiments over bias and variance demonstrate how changes in annotator parameters systematically influence predictive performance. The code used in this paper is made publicly available at https://github.com/QiLi111/GPS-Var.
Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) segmentation on contrast-enhanced CT is inherently ambiguous: inter-rater disagreement among experts reflects genuine uncertainty rather than annotation noise. Standard deep learning approaches assume a single ground truth, producing probabilistic outputs that can be poorly calibrated and difficult to interpret under such ambiguity. We present TwinTrack, a framework that addresses this gap through post-hoc calibration of ensemble segmentation probabilities to the empirical mean human response (MHR) -the fraction of expert annotators labeling a voxel as tumor. Calibrated probabilities are thus directly interpretable as the expected proportion of annotators assigning the tumor label, explicitly modeling inter-rater disagreement. The proposed post-hoc calibration procedure is simple and requires only a small multi-rater calibration set. It consistently improves calibration metrics over standard approaches when evaluated on the MICCAI 2025 CURVAS-PDACVI multi-rater benchmark.
Tristan Kirscher, Alexandra Ertl, Klaus Maier-Hein +3
Few-shot medical image segmentation methods typically assume a single ground-truth annotation, overlooking systematic variability across expert raters commonly observed in clinical datasets. We propose an attention-based prototype calibration framework for few-shot multi-rater segmentation that models rater-specific deviations from a consensus representation in prototype space. A lightweight yet principled attention operator directly refines rater prototypes without modifying the backbone feature extractor, making the approach fully compatible with existing prototype-based few-shot segmentation methods. This design preserves semantic consistency while enabling personalized segmentation outputs with minimal computational overhead. Experiments on multi-rater medical imaging datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over baseline prototype approaches, highlighting the effectiveness of structured prototype calibration for modeling annotation variability.