ELVIS: Ensemble-Calibrated Latent Imagination for Long-Horizon Visual MPC
Authors: Yurui Du, Pinhao Song, Yutong Hu, Renaud Detry
Abstract
A central challenge of visual control with model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is reliable long-horizon planning: long rollouts with learned latent dynamics exhibit branching futures and multi-modal action-value distributions. In addition, compounding model errors amplified by visual occlusions make deep imagination brittle. We present ELVIS, a latent model predictive controller (MPC) designed to make long-horizon planning practical. ELVIS plans in a Dreamer-style recurrent state space model (RSSM) and replaces standard unimodal model predictive path integral (MPPI) with a Gaussian-mixture MPPI that maintains multiple coherent hypotheses over long horizons, avoiding mode averaging under branching rollouts. In parallel, ELVIS stabilizes deep imagination with a shared uncertainty-aware lambda-return: an ensemble of latent critics defines an upper-confidence-bound (UCB) score that gates a time-varying lambda, adaptively trading off bootstrapping versus look-ahead to limit compounding error during planning. The same return is used both to train an actor-critic prior from imagined rollouts and to score candidate trajectories inside GMM-MPPI, aligning RL objectives with the planner's long-horizon optimization. On fourteen DeepMind Control Suite visual tasks, ELVIS establishes state-of-the-art performance compared with TD-MPC2 and DreamerV3. Finally, ELVIS transfers zero-shot to a real-world sand-spraying task with severe occlusions, improving surface-quality metrics and demonstrating robustness beyond simulation.
State-of-the-art model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches either use gradient-free, population-based methods for planning, learned policy networks, or a combination of policy networks and planning. Hybrid approaches that combine Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a learned model and a policy prior to leverage the advantages of both paradigms have shown promising results. However, these approaches typically rely on gradient-free optimization methods, which can be computationally expensive for high-dimensional control tasks. While gradient-based methods are a promising alternative, recent works have empirically shown that gradient-based methods often perform worse than their gradient-free counterparts. We propose Dream-MPC, a novel approach that generates few candidate trajectories from a rolled-out policy and optimizes each trajectory by gradient ascent using a learned world model, uncertainty regularization and amortization of optimization iterations over time by reusing previously optimized actions. Our results on 24 continuous control tasks show that Dream-MPC can significantly improve the performance of the underlying policy and can outperform gradient-free MPC and state-of-the-art baselines. Code and videos are available at https://dream-mpc.github.io.
Latent world models improve sample efficiency in continuous control by optimizing policies over imagined latent trajectories, but common neural transitions offer limited direct control over modal persistence and error accumulation in long rollouts. We propose Koopman Dreamer, a Dreamer-style world model with a spectrally constrained deterministic latent dynamics core. Its Koopman-inspired backbone uses two-dimensional rotation--scaling blocks with bounded radii to represent damping, rotation, and near-periodic modes. Linear and low-rank bilinear action terms capture global and state-dependent control effects, while stochastic-state modulation supplies local correction information. To reduce the mismatch between posterior-conditioned training and prior-only imagination, the model combines posterior-conditioned EMA teacher targets with one-step consistency, multi-step rollout, and open-loop observation-prediction objectives. We further derive a multi-step rollout-error bound that separates amplification by the spectral backbone and bilinear interaction from the additive effects of stochastic-state mismatch and modeling residuals, clarifying the trade-off between error attenuation and long-term information retention. Experimental results on proprioceptive continuous-control tasks from the DeepMind Control Suite and UAV-LiDAR autonomous navigation demonstrate that Koopman Dreamer improves the stability of long-horizon latent rollouts and achieves stronger closed-loop control performance on tasks that rely on high-quality multi-step imagination.
Recently, world models have emerged as a promising paradigm for building intelligent agents by learning predictive models that estimate future environment states conditioned on observations and actions. In particular, JEPA-style latent world models provide an efficient alternative to pixel space prediction by learning action-conditioned dynamics in compact representation spaces. However, existing latent world models typically rely on one-step prediction and must be recursively rolled out for long-horizon planning, which leads to compounding errors and a mismatch between training objectives and downstream planning tasks. To address this limitation, we propose Variable-length Latent World Models (VLWMs), a framework that learns to predict future latent states conditioned on action sequences of variable lengths. Instead of training only on one-step transitions, VLWMs directly model temporally extended dynamics, allowing the same predictor to evaluate action plans over different horizons. We further introduce a curriculum training strategy that progressively expands the action horizon, stabilizing optimization from short-range dynamics to long-range prediction. At test time, we design planning methods tailored to VLWMs to better exploit their variable-length predictive capabilities. Experiments on long-horizon control tasks show that VLWMs significantly improve latent space world models, achieving 13% average improvement over the state-of-the-art LeWM across different datasets, with especially large gains on tasks requiring extended planning. These results suggest that VLWM provides a simple yet effective paradigm for improving long-horizon prediction and planning in latent world models.