Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift

Robustness, domain adaptation, photometric/occlusion invariance, sensor drift, and alignment style are treated as separate literatures with separate method families. Under label-preserving deployment shift they share one geometric object: the covariance Sigma_task = Cov_{Q_n}(n) of ways inputs can change without changing the label. CORAL, adversarial training, augmentation, metric learning, Jacobian penalties, and alignment constraints are not independent tricks--they are estimators of Sigma_task. Fix that object and the Jacobian penalty is pinned by a matrix Sigma' whose range must cover range(Sigma_task)--the matching principle. We prove optimality in a linear-Gaussian model (Thm. A), necessity of range coverage for any quadratic penalty that zeros deployment drift (Thm. G), and the same dichotomy at global minima (Thm. A_global). Wrong-direction/signal-aligned controls (Lemma C; Cor. E/E) and seven estimators (Lemmas D1--D7), plus label-free TDI, yield a falsifiable recipe when Sigma_task must be learned. Thirteen blocks (ML through Qwen2.5-7B) test matched vs isotropic vs wrong-direction penalties on geometry and deployment drift. Twelve match theory where identifiability holds; Office-31 is a named eigengap failure. Partial passes: geometry can improve without every headline task metric moving. A pilot 7B DPO run (one epoch, 240 pairs): matched style-PMH preserves Style TDI where standard DPO degrades it. We do not claim standard training reaches global minima (assumption (O) is open), that estimated Sigma_task is always identifiable, or dominance on every leaderboard. We claim a falsifiable design recipe: estimate Sigma_task, match Sigma', run the controls, report task and geometry separately.

Data-driven surrogate models can significantly accelerate the simulation of continuous dynamical systems, yet the step-wise accumulation of errors during autoregressive time-stepping often leads to spectral blow-up and unphysical divergence. Existing global regularization techniques can enforce contractive dynamics but uniformly damp high-frequency features, causing over-smoothing; meanwhile, long-horizon trajectory optimization methods are severely constrained by memory bottlenecks. This paper proposes Jacobian-Adaptive Weighting for Stability (JAWS), which reformulates operator learning as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation problem with spatially heteroscedastic uncertainty, enabling the regularization strength to adapt automatically based on local physical complexity: enforcing contraction in smooth regions to suppress noise while relaxing constraints near singular features such as shocks to preserve gradient information. Experiments demonstrate that JAWS serves as an effective spectral pre-conditioner for trajectory optimization, allowing short-horizon, memory-efficient training to match the accuracy of long-horizon baselines. Validations on the 1D viscous Burgers' equation and 2D flow past a cylinder ($\text{Re}=400$ out-of-distribution generalization) confirm the method's advantages in long-term stability, preservation of physical conservation properties, and computational efficiency. This significant reduction in memory usage makes the method particularly well-suited for stable and efficient long-term simulation of large-scale flow fields in practical engineering applications.

Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.