Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift

Data-driven surrogate models can significantly accelerate the simulation of continuous dynamical systems, yet the step-wise accumulation of errors during autoregressive time-stepping often leads to spectral blow-up and unphysical divergence. Existing global regularization techniques can enforce contractive dynamics but uniformly damp high-frequency features, causing over-smoothing; meanwhile, long-horizon trajectory optimization methods are severely constrained by memory bottlenecks. This paper proposes Jacobian-Adaptive Weighting for Stability (JAWS), which reformulates operator learning as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation problem with spatially heteroscedastic uncertainty, enabling the regularization strength to adapt automatically based on local physical complexity: enforcing contraction in smooth regions to suppress noise while relaxing constraints near singular features such as shocks to preserve gradient information. Experiments demonstrate that JAWS serves as an effective spectral pre-conditioner for trajectory optimization, allowing short-horizon, memory-efficient training to match the accuracy of long-horizon baselines. Validations on the 1D viscous Burgers' equation and 2D flow past a cylinder ($\text{Re}=400$ out-of-distribution generalization) confirm the method's advantages in long-term stability, preservation of physical conservation properties, and computational efficiency. This significant reduction in memory usage makes the method particularly well-suited for stable and efficient long-term simulation of large-scale flow fields in practical engineering applications.

Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.

Finite-dimensional (FD) diffusion policies exhibit temporal drift owing to discretization artifacts that degrade long-horizon performance (when deployed on physical systems). We introduce a backward Kolmogorov equation that lifts diffusion policies to a Cameron-Martin space -- a subset of the Hilbert space. Essentially, replacing stochastic score matching with a deterministic boundary-value PDE problem. Our core innovation thrives on Gaussian measure theory whereupon the diffusion noise covariance operator is realized from a colored noise distribution which prescribes a notion of regularity on samples from the model at inference time. We train the diffusion model with a derived precision-weighted Cameron- Martin loss and a Kolmogorov residual is introduced as a PDE diagnostic during inference. These substitutions yield (i) convergence guarantees where the bound's constants depend on the effective rank of the kernel rather than action dimension, (ii) improved trajectory regularity via spectral weighting, and (iii) a deterministic failure detector without reward signals. Validation across two application domains demonstrates substantial improvements: on the PushT manipulation benchmark, the Cameron-Martin loss achieves a 17% improvement in maximum episode reward (0.95 vs. 0.78 for MSE) and 67.6% reduction in inter-step drifts during inference via the introduced residual magnitude. Similarly, on a 6-station manufacturing line with constant work-in-process (CONWIP) flow control, we achieve 28.4% lower RMSE than classical LSTM baselines; a high starvation-event recall (1.0 in test cycles), and effective bottleneck identification (Precision@1 = 1.0 in test set, 13x signal-to-noise ratio). We then certify the dispatch policies with Hamilton-Jacobi reachability theory which reduces deadlock events by 96% compared to uncontrolled dispatch over 100 simulated runs (351 events prevented).