Towards Dependable Retrieval-Augmented Generation Using Factual Confidence Prediction

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become the standard way to ground large language models in external knowledge, yet most systems retrieve a fixed number of passages for every question regardless of its difficulty. This wastes computation on easy questions, starves hard ones, and gives no signal for when a generated answer can be trusted. With a growing share of question answering systems built on top of commercial language model APIs, a method that can decide how much to retrieve, and how far to trust its own answers, without retraining the underlying model, is of clear practical value. This paper presents AB-RAG (Adaptive Budgeted Retrieval-Augmented Generation), a training-free and backbone-agnostic framework that generates an answer, estimates its confidence from a combination of three signals, and then decides whether to stop or to retrieve more evidence, subject to a fixed retrieval budget. The estimator combines the model's own certainty, the agreement between the answer and the evidence, and the variance of the retrieval scores. For models that expose token probabilities the certainty signal is read directly; for closed APIs it is approximated by self-consistency, so the method works without access to model internals. Across three backbones and two datasets, the central result is that the confidence estimate reliably separates correct from incorrect answers on every backbone, reaching a clean split of 57.6% against 0% Exact Match between high- and low-confidence answers on a factoid dataset. The adaptive policy improves accuracy on capable backbones, and the study reports its negative and nuanced findings honestly, including a confidence signal that proved unsuitable for short answers and a retrieval signal whose sign was found and corrected through measurement. The entire study was carried out on a single consumer laptop with only a few dollars of API spend.

As retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems scale, it becomes increasingly challenging to ensure faithful grounding in external evidence. Large language models may still prioritize parametric knowledge over retrieved information when conflicts arise. We propose a novel training-free decoding framework, \emph{Grounded Decoding}, designed to improve factual consistency in RAG without modifying model parameters. Unlike standard approaches that rely on a single conditional distribution, our method constructs two matched-prompt distributions at every generation step: (1) a full RAG distribution conditioned on the query, retrieved documents, and generated prefix, and (2) a retrieval-only distribution conditioned solely on retrieved evidence and the same prefix. The final next-token distribution is derived as the unique solution to a KL-barycenter objective over the probability simplex, yielding a normalized geometric fusion of the two distributions.This formulation naturally recovers standard RAG when the grounding weight is zero and smoothly shifts probability mass toward retrieved evidence as grounding strength increases. We further introduce a conflict-aware adaptive weighting scheme that dynamically adjusts grounding based on distributional disagreement and retriever confidence. Experiments on ALCE, Natural Questions, and FActScore demonstrate consistent improvements in factual accuracy and citation quality over standard RAG and competitive decoding-time baselines, while maintaining fluency. Our results indicate that probability-level fusion provides a strong and efficient alternative to logit-level intervention methods for faithful RAG decoding.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) models frequently produce answers grounded in parametric memory rather than the retrieved context, undermining the core promise of retrieval augmentation. A fundamental obstacle to fixing this unfaithfulness is the lack of training data that explicitly requires models to prefer context over internal knowledge. We introduce Faithfulness-QA, a large-scale dataset of 99,094 samples constructed through counterfactual entity substitution. Starting from two established extractive QA benchmarks--SQuAD and TriviaQA--we automatically identify answer-bearing named entities in each context, replace them with type-consistent alternatives drawn from a curated bank of 76,953 entities, and thereby manufacture controlled knowledge conflicts between context and parametric memory. Rigorous quality filtering ensures 100% pass rates across four automated checks on random 200-sample audits. We release the full dataset, the construction pipeline, and a typed entity bank covering eight named entity categories. Faithfulness-QA is designed as a training resource for attention-based faithfulness objectives and as an evaluation benchmark for measuring context-grounding behavior in RAG systems. Data and code are available at https://github.com/qzhangFDU/faithfulness-qa-dataset.